The spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated that for Beijing, “Taiwanese independence” is “incompatible with maintaining peace in the region”. Given the November election deadline in the United States, which complicates any military intervention, could Beijing take advantage of this to try to take control of Taiwan?
Put the pressure on, prepare the invasion
China’s military exercises around Taiwan are repeated. But if the prospect of a land invasion of the island is a risk for which successive Taiwanese governments are preparing, the possibility of the establishment of an air and sea blockade is worrying. For Alexandre Gandilthe exercises of recent days have reaffirmed this possibility: “125 fighter planes… This is a record, over a single day, in terms of incursion. The challenge was effectively to simulate a blockade. One of the advanced scenarios could be a blockade simulation exercise which, if it lasts several days, and for an indefinite period, will ultimately actually blockade the island of Taiwan and allow the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ) to go under the radar, while putting pressure on both Taiwan and the international community.“
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A permanent tension
Since the defeat of the nationalists during the Chinese civil war and their flight to the island of Taiwan in 1949, the communist regime in Beijing has never recognized the independence of the island, which it considers de facto as the one of its provinces. The aggressiveness of Beijing’s speech and the climate of tension which reigns in the region between the two nations are of great concern, explains Alexandre Gandildespite the balance of power supposedly enabled by US support for Taiwan.
An inevitable invasion?
But for Alexandre Gandilwe must limit too hasty speculation: “The main factor pushing for the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army is precisely the prospect of an amphibious landing towards Taiwan to allow the conquest of the island. Today, the People’s Liberation Army does not yet have the necessary capabilities to ensure a victorious landing on the other side of the strait, particularly in terms of counter-insurgency management. Indeed, once the territory is occupied, there remains the population to control and monitor. We therefore see certain dates circulating from which the People’s Liberation Army should be able to invade Taiwan: 2027, the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army; 2049, the centenary of the People’s Republic of China; or even the intermediate date of 2035. A lot of dates have been put forward, but today, there is no certainty about the temporality of this potential landing.“
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