Nearly 80% of IPCC scientists interviewed by the Guardian believe that the temperature on Earth will have increased by at least 2.5°C during this century compared to the end of the 19th century. Most point to a lack of political will as the main reason for their pessimism.
In 2018, a special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that a planet overheated by +2°C compared to the end of the 19th century would be much more inhospitable than a world at +1.5°C, while detailing the range of solutions to prevent humanity from leaving its climatic comfort zone. But today, few of these experts still seem to believe in the possibility of remaining below one of these two thresholds, which governments committed not to exceed during the Paris agreement in 2015. A survey carried out by THE Guardian and published Wednesday May 8 reveals that nearly 80% of scientists who participated in the IPCC reports believe that the temperature on Earth will increase by at least 2.5°C during this century, in comparison with the pre-industrial period (1850 -1900).
“The results show that many of the most knowledgeable people on the planet expect climate devastation in the decades to come”, comments the British daily. Because beyond 1.5°C, there is a risk of reaching “points of no return” such as the collapse of the polar ice caps or the savannahization of the Amazonian forest, and no longer being able to adapt to the surge of extreme events (torrent rains, heatwaves, droughts, etc.). The planet is already experiencing a warming of 1.2°C today, attributed to human activities, the effects of which are widely felt on all continents. The IPCC warns that each additional fraction of a degree of warming will cause more suffering, death and property damage.
A “semi-dystopian” future
THE Guardian sent a form to 843 scientists who participated in the most recent work, since 2018, with the following question: “How many degrees do you think the climate will warm in 2100?” Asking the opinion of IPCC contributors was a risky bet, because the organization values its image of neutrality, which does not recommend anything but summarizes the state of knowledge. “The fact that we write non-prescriptive reports does not prevent us from having an opinion. When you have worked on a subject for decades, you inevitably have an opinion”explains Gonéri Le Cozannet, geographer who wrote about the impacts of climate change in one of the latest IPCC reports, published in 2022. On the other hand, he remembers being baffled by the question of Guardianbecause “There is not just one answer, everything will depend on the policies that will be implemented”. He is not sure if he has completed the form.
Nearly half of his peers responded with certainty. The majority envisage a world at +2.5°C, corresponding to an intermediate greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenario. As it stands, the commitments made by governments lead roughly to this trajectory. But states still need to keep their promises. Many of the IPCC scientists seem to believe this, but warn that it will be far from satisfactory.
“I am extremely concerned about the cost in human lives,” for example, declared Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, from the State University of Rio de Janeiro, at Guardian. Others regret the fact that the general public does not yet realize the extent of the risks involved. Even in the short term. “I think we are heading towards major societal disruption in the next five years”said Gretta Pecl, from the University of Tasmania (Australia).
“Many scientists envision a “semi-dystopian” future, marked by famines, conflicts and mass migrations, driven by heat waves, wildfires, floods and storms of such intensity and magnitude. frequency much higher than those which have already occurred”Write the Guardian. A dark future that scientists have been warning about for a long time, and which is becoming more and more plausible.
Young people and women more pessimistic
Only six respondents still say they hope to stabilize the climate below +1.5°C. But many more people expect the planet to become unlivable. Nearly half envision a world at +3°C. There are 14 of them “betting” on +4°C, seven on +4.5°C and even four at +5°C and above. If the results vary little from one continent to another, young people and women would be more pessimistic within the group.
According to Guardian, “many experts said they felt hopeless, angry and scared». Among the main causes of this discomfort, “Lack of political will was cited by almost three-quarters of those surveyed, while 60% also pointed the finger at corporate interests, such as the fossil fuel industry. Many also spoke of inequalities and the inability of rich countries to help the poor, who suffer the most from climate impacts. Ulcerated by the lack of action, an anonymous South African scientist believes that “We live in crazy times.” Another states in a complementary article: “I’m relieved not to have children, knowing what the future holds”.
“This survey shows that climatologists are very worried about the insufficiency of government action, this feeling seems quite massive” despite the great diversity of profiles, analyzes Gonéri Le Cozannet. For his part, he evokes a “strong dissatisfaction or even anger to see that for example in France we cannot protect marine areas from the most destructive fishing practices such as trawling. It’s scandalous”. These practices, in addition to being very harmful to biodiversity, help to release CO2 buried in the oceans by scraping the seabed. Even frustrated, however, scientists remain combative and tirelessly call for a strong and urgent increase in our efforts to save what can be saved. “If this poll can give an alert before the European elections…”still hopes for Gonéri Le Cozannet.
