The methodology varies according to the surveys, the figures should always be taken with a grain of salt. But the advantage of the Eurobarometers published by the Commission is the historical series which allows comparisons. Thus, on the eve of the European elections, 71% of Europeans (67% of French people) declare their intention to vote, if the election took place next week. A figure up ten points compared to 2019.
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A climate of gravity
A physiological drop is always recorded between intentions and reality. Five years ago, actual participation was 50.66% across the EU (compared to intentions of 61%). Some countries make the split (in the Netherlands, 84% declared that they wanted to vote, and participation was only 42%); others are quite reliable (the gap was only one point for the Italians and Czechs; in France, intentions (61%) exceeded actual votes by eleven points (50.1%).
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But the April Eurobarometer above all testifies to the climate of seriousness present this year, with the war in Ukraine. 81% of respondents believe that the geopolitical context makes this election particularly important. 37% of EU citizens place defense and security as a top priority to strengthen the EU’s position globally, followed by energy issues and food security/agriculture (30% in both cases). The closer we get to Russia, the more urgent the strategic issue is perceived.
Poverty, exclusion, health…
Regarding the present, the fight against poverty and social exclusion (33%) and public health (32%) top the list of concerns, followed by support for the economy. Note that climate change loses one place (5e), immigration falls (7e) while it was the third priority in 2019. Only Sweden places climate first (58%); five years ago, seven countries made it the top priority.
Inflation and war therefore seem to dictate the agenda that Europeans have in mind for this election. 71% of Europeans (63% of French people) believe that their country benefits from its membership of the EU. 56% of respondents (50% of French people) would like to see the European Parliament play a more important role (especially Spain, Greece, Belgium, Lithuania at more than 70%).
