in our poll compiler, Valérie Hayer continues to drop one month before the election

POLITICS – Things are getting serious. This Thursday, May 9, the campaign for the European elections enters its last month. 31 days before the fateful date, the main leaders of the list got to the heart of the matter, after a debate bringing together (and for the first time) all of the seven main candidates organized on May 2. And at this stage, the balance of power table confirms several trends. The first: the discontinuous dropout of the head of the presidential camp list Valérie Hayer.

If the supporters of the president of the Renew group in the European Parliament swear that nothing is decided and that the electoral battle has not yet begun, it is clear that the slope taken by the person concerned continues to bring her closer to her continuing, the PS-Place Publique candidate Raphaël Glucksmann, who continues his rise. Because as you can see in the survey compiler that HuffPost publishes regularly, the crossing of the curves (as much feared in Macronie as hoped for among the socialists) is not very far away.

If almost three points separate Valérie Hayer from Raphaël Glucksmann, and the tool used is in no way predictive but allows trends to be traced, the trajectories of each show that it could be the real match of this European election , against the backdrop of a (possible) return to the left of a part of the social democratic electorate, once seduced by Emmanuel Macron but scalded by the successive attacks to the right undertaken by the executive.

Especially since the major European issues mobilized by the presidential camp are also important for the founder of Place-Publique, also very identified with these issues.

Very far ahead, at 31.1%, Jordan Bardella also appears out of reach for the Macronist candidate. And it would seem risky to bet on the debate between the president of the RN and Gabriel Attal (announced for May 23) to make up for a delay of fifteen points in one month, although the Macronist electorate tends to mobilize more for the elections intermediate than those acquired from Marine Le Pen.

The thrill at LFI

Another lesson from this compiler one month before the vote, a renewed interest in the rebellious list. Since the end of April, Manon Aubry has been picking up a few points, marking the beginning of an upward slope. Yet relegated by the omnipresence of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and candidate Rima Hassan, the LFI MEP seems to benefit from the strategy of the rebellious apparatus, which focuses media attention against a backdrop of mobilization in favor of Gaza and among pro-Palestinian mobilizations within the student world. In the latest Ifop “rolling” for example (taken into account in our compiler), Manon Aubry jumped 8% among 18-24 year olds.

This is the beginning of a tremor that will have to be confirmed for LFI, since with 7.5% of voting intentions in total, the list led by Manon Aubry continues for the moment to oscillate between 6 and 8%, without achieving pass the step above. Environmentalists, on the other hand, are not at the point of looking up. The head of the list Marie Toussaint remains stuck below the 7% mark, seeing the bar of the eligibility threshold (set at 5%) getting dangerously closer. One month before the vote, Marie Toussaint shows 6.7%.

On the right and at its extreme, the match between LR candidate François-Xavier Bellamy and Marion Maréchal (last in the ranking) is currently going in favor of Versailles. Despite a rapprochement of the curves at the end of January, the LR MEP continues to keep his pursuer Reconquest at bay! : 7.2% voting intentions for the first and 6.2% for the second.

Which, at this place in the ranking, is important, since the two camps (which are competing for a conservative electorate) are fighting not far from the waterline of 5%, the threshold necessary to obtain elected representatives to the European Parliament. A fight in a pocket handkerchief, made all the more perilous as the two teams are at stake for their survival on June 9. Enough to promise a particularly stressful last month on both camps.

This compiler, which aggregates surveys published by around ten polling institutes, is not intended to predict the outcome of the election but to provide a snapshot of opinion at a moment’s notice and to highlight trends.

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