”I don’t like the expression all rotten, but that’s what I think… “: who are these Belgians who will not vote on June 9?

This retired Namur resident, who has nevertheless worked in several ministerial offices, defines herself as an abstentionist.

This category, coupled with people who voted blank or invalid, accounted for 17% of voters in 2019. This is a rate not seen since the 1939 elections.

This represents 1.3 million Belgians, which is more than the number of votes obtained by the N-VA, the leading party in Belgium, and constitutes, in absolute figures, a record.

Among them, there are those, on the one hand, who do not travel to vote. They are called abstainers and they represented 11.62% of Belgians of voting age during the May 2019 election.

“I expect a slightly lower level of electoral participation than in 2019”

There are also those who enter the voting booth, but do not choose any party. We are talking about a blank vote.

There are still those whose ballots are not counted. It is called a void vote. Or because the voter voluntarily made this choice, by smearing the ballot with humorous scribbles. Either because, inadvertently, he filled out the ballot incorrectly, for example by blacking out the boxes for several parties in the voting booth, instead of just one.

Cumulatively, blank and invalid votes weighed on average 6.1% of the total in Belgium in the 2019 federal elections.

But who are these Belgians who do not vote?

”Abstentionism is strongly correlated with social status. The higher your social status, the greater the propensity to vote, and vice versa, analyzes Pascal Delwit, political scientist at ULB. The same goes for educational capital: the higher it is, the higher the propensity to participate in elections, and vice versa as well. Let us also mention the effects of socialization. The more you are professionally integrated, the more activities you go to, the more you vote. On the other hand, among people in a situation of isolation, without professional activity, there is a higher proportion of abstentions. We are talking abstainer of situation or conditionand this concerns people who are not very socially integrated.”

Let us also mention, as Jean Faniel, director of CRISP, points out, the people who die between the moment when the voters’ lists are finalized and the day of the vote, and remain included in the statistics of abstainers. Or even illiterate people who prefer not to vote rather than to vote “badly”.

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”There is also an abstentionism, or blank vote, called rejection, which can be structural and concerns people who do not believe in politics, in a long-term or temporary manner.continues Pascal Delwit. If your favorite party has disappointed you, it is possible that you will abstain for an election, before returning to it later. There can also sometimes be a refusal to choose due to an offer deemed unsatisfactory. For example if you are on the left and Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen face each other in the presidential election in the second round. Or that you are a socialist and that you vote in Lasne, where the PS has no elected representatives. You may then be tempted to think that your vote will do no good.”

“No party is above the fray”

Marie, cited above, belongs to this category of well-informed citizens who nevertheless reject, albeit late, a political world which has disappointed them. “I don’t like the expression all rotten, but that’s what I think… We have incompetent ministers. And if they are not at the beginning, they are upon arrival because they behave like a yes-man under the orders of the party president. And then, when we talk about their benefits in kind, their parliamentary pension, it gives me hives. In my mind, no party is above the fray. I really liked the Walloon MP Stéphane Hazée, who said things, it seems to me. But now that Ecolo is in power, we no longer hear him. As for the PTB, he denounces the system, but his deputies take the money anyway, to give it back to their party and it costs the citizen the same. I no longer believe in the power of politics, because of the personal and the political system.”

For others, even though they have a high socio-economic status, abstention seems like a deeply rooted conviction. “I stopped voting in the 1979 European elections”, remembers Michel Marteau, former omnipotent editor-in-chief of the DHof Evening Magazine and of Sudpresse. “Voting doesn’t interest me and I have no interest in politics. I stopped believing in the ability of politicians to change things, and being in this environment convinced me of it… It disgusted me and I drew my own conclusions.”

The Belgian system, based on coalitions, contributes to the rejection of some. “I remain convinced that, in certain countries, voting changes things. If I lived in France, Germany, England, or the USA, I would probably vote. But the Belgian political offer is banal and not very differentiated. The proportional system certainly guarantees almost every current to be represented, but it also leads to a paralysis of power, and a scattering of resources”, continues Michel Marteau, who assures “never having received the slightest fine”, despite his prolonged electoral abstinence.

In theory, without justification, the Belgian electoral code provides for a fine. But in practice, there are so many abstainers that they are very rarely sanctioned, if at all, by the public authorities.

A generational divide

Voting is also subject to generational effects. “In Europe, there is a generational divide. The youngest, aged 18 to 39, vote less than those aged 39 and over. Those over 40 consider voting much more as a duty, while younger people see it more as a right, and abstain more.analyzes Pascal Delwit.

Furthermore, in the rare countries where voting is compulsory, such as Belgium or Luxembourg, the number of blank or invalid votes is proportionally greater. The person who respects the law therefore goes to the voting booth, but refuses to choose a party.

The new Blanco party intends to capture the votes of these disillusioned voters.

The influence of… the weather

Other factors influence participation. ” Voting day also has importance, with effects linked to the weather. Likewise, if the vote takes place during the holidays, participation will be lower. During the French presidential elections of 2002, in certain areas, it was vacation. Some believe that it cost Lionel Jospin dearly,” resumes Pascal Delwit.

Does abstention benefit the right?

Because abstention, according to political scientists, benefits right-wing parties more. “Historically, strong abstention benefits the right, and strong participation benefits the left, with the exception of Italy”, concludes Pascal Delwit, who is not convinced that the rises of Vlaams Belang and the PTB, announced in the polls, will have a clear effect on abstention levels. “But today, it’s more nuanced. Because votes for the left are no longer so correlated with the working classes. Structurally, however, we can still say that a strong abstention benefits the parties which have a more educated electorate, namely the MR, the Open VLD, Écolo and Groen.”