In an unlikely but not impossible scenario, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could find themselves tied on the evening of November 5. Here’s what would happen then.
What if neither of the two US presidential candidates manages to win a majority of the Electoral College votes? In other words, What would happen if Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each received 269 of the 538 electoral votes? Depending on the fate of certain swing states, there are several scenariosin which the vote would end in a tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
“If Kamala Harris wins Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, but Trump wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, then the election ends in a tie, the two candidates each pocketing a similar number of electoral votes», Write our Swiss colleagues from Blick, who simulated different scenarios via the “270 to win” platform.
In the case of perfect equality, the American Constitution states that it is up to the House of Representatives to elect the president. Special feature: deputies would not vote individually, they would be grouped by state. Each of the 50 states would have one vote, and the candidate who received at least 26 of the 50 votes would then be elected president..
Donald Trump favored in the event of a tie?
This vote would be very different from what is usually done in the House. In the United States, states have a number of representatives which varies proportionally according to their demographic weight. Thus, California has 52 deputies, compared to only one for sparsely populated states, such as Wyoming. In the case of a tie, we would therefore not take into account this demographic balance. California would have one vote, as would Wyoming.
A tie could benefit Donald Trump. “Democrats do well in highly populated states, like California, while Republicans perform well in states with fewer residents. Donald Trump could emerge advantaged, because his party controls a greater number of states, regardless of their number of inhabitants,” analyzes Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, lecturer at Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye and specialist in American politics.
“It will also be necessary to take into account the renewal of the House of Representatives, which could modify the balances in place. The elections for members of Congress will take place on the same day as the presidential elections,” adds the political scientist.
The vice-president would be elected by the Senate. Unlike the House, all senators, two in number per state, would retain their votes. In theory, there could therefore be a president and a vice-president coming from two opposing political sides, which would be completely unprecedented in American history.
Palpable tension and an untenable electoral system
“The scenario of a tie would create a major political crisis and a lot of tension. The president would have very little legitimacy among the population, because America has almost never experienced such a situation,” explains Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy.
“The last time this 12th Amendment of the Constitution was used was in 1824. No candidate reached an absolute majority, and the House then elected Quincy Adams,” confirms Serge Jaumain, co-director of the Interdisciplinary Center for the Study of the Americas.
Tie or not, whatever happens after the vote, it may turn out to be explosive. “If Donald Trump is beaten, explains the historian, he will be even less likely to accept his defeat than in 2020, given his troubles with the law. If he wins, he will surely win thanks to the electors and not via the popular vote, which will cause discontent among the Democrats.
In this extremely polarized political contexta majority of Americans would also be in favor of the abandonment of the electoral system. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, 63% would prefer the president to be the person who won the most votes nationally. Has the time for change come?
Baptiste Guelton
