The Tim Walz-JD Vance debate for the US presidential election puts the Midwest at the center of the game

UNITED STATES – Their ideas are at least as far apart as the 1,000 miles that separate where they grew up. Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz, respectively running mates of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for the American presidential election, will meet for a single televised debate this Tuesday, October 1. With, at the center of the game, an often forgotten American region: the Midwest.

The Midwest covers a quarter of the country, in the northwest of the United States, or no less than 12 states. Tim Walz is from the far west of this area, specifically the small towns of Butte and Valentine, Nebraska. A rural state where he spent his time in the fields, with his friends, and on the American football fields. His story is that of a happy childhood in nature despite his father’s cancer who died when he was 19 years old.

The story of JD Vance is of a completely different ilk. He told it in 2018 in the book Hillbilly Elegya bestselling book that led to his national fame and involvement in politics. Until becoming the young clone of Donald Trump, embracing MAGA ideology (« Make America Great Again ») and embodying the future of the Republican Party. In this autobiography, JD Vance recounts his childhood in deindustrialized Middletown, Ohio, his drug-addicted mother, and poverty with his grandparents who raised him rough. Then his social climb from the army to the famous Yale Law School.

Their origins and personal stories are not unrelated to their presence on presidential tickets. They were chosen by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in particular because they come from this part of America under-represented in politics. And it is precisely here that some of the key states are located which will be decisive for the presidential election on November 5.

The battle of ideas for the Midwest

The Republicans hope to convince the workers of the Rustbelt, the “rust belt”, which is partly located in the Midwest and which has suffered the full brunt of deindustrialization. Donald Trump did not fail to emphasize, when he chose the young senator from Ohio as his running mate, that the latter “will be focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American workers and farmers of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and beyond.”

As for the Democrats, Tim Walz’s “cool dad” image, his Midwestern accent, his past as a hunter in the National Guard and his career as an American football coach weighed heavily in the balance. Without forgetting that although the sixty-year-old no longer lives in Nebraska, he has been the governor of another Midwestern state for five years: Minnesota, located on the border with Canada.

It remains to be seen whether the two profiles will manage to change the situation. Despite his good nature, Tim Walz was elected from a state won by the Democrats. As for the voters of Nebraska, solidly Republican and who see the Democrats as a scarecrow, they are not likely to vote for a native who left the nest many years ago. In JD Vance’s Ohio, the same observation: the Republicans are almost guaranteed to win, as in 2020 and 2016.

Michigan and Wisconsin, key states scrutinized

It is rather on the side of the key States – so-called « swing states » – of the Midwest to turn to: Michigan and Wisconsin. Together they represent 25 electors out of the 270 needed for a candidate to win the election. A little history and a look at the polls shows how much these two states swing from one party to another depending on election years and how decisive they will be in November.

Thus, Michigan was won by Joe Biden in 2020, while Donald Trump won it by a hair against Hillary Clinton in 2016. In 2012, Barack Obama largely conquered the state against Mitt Romney. The polls for 2024 mostly seem to give a slight advantage to Kamala Harris, but it is within the margin of error (two or three points ahead depending on the institutes).

On the Wisconsin side, the gap is even tighter. Joe Biden won the state by a whisker in 2020. Four years earlier, it was Donald Trump who won by a whisker, while in 2012, Barack Obama won by a wide margin. This year, the polls give the advantage to Kamala Harris with a lead of only one point compared to Donald Trump.

In a vote that risks coming down to a handful of electors, winning Michigan and Wisconsin is a matter of survival even if all the key states are worth watching, particularly Pennsylvania. So here is the difficult mission that falls to Tim Walz and JD Vance.

The debate takes place in New York, far from the Midwest

Their duel will reach its climax in this Tuesday’s debate, which will ironically take place in New York, far from the reality of the Midwest. On stage we will see two Americans confront each other with completely different visions of their vast region which they are certain to know by heart, but who have polar opposite solutions to respond to the ills of the population.

Both will defend the program of their respective champion, but will also attack each other. JD Vance, who will have to set things right after Trump’s failed debate against Harris, will not fail to qualify his opponent as a dangerous leftist, while dispelling the lunar rumor about Haitians eating pets that he contributed to to broadcast. Tim Walz will endeavor to show the contrast between the Trumpist program and that of Kamala Harris, and should recall all the blunders of his opponent, whom he has already described as « bizarre ».

Traditionally, a debate between two potential vice-presidents does not do wonders in the polls. But with only one debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, voters might be tempted to see what Tim Walz and JD Vance have to offer. And in a very close election, reminds Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio The Hill, “the needle only needs to move 0.1 point in one direction or the other to make a difference in four or five states”. There is no doubt that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will have their eyes on this needle.

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