Will Donald Trump manage to do better than George W. Bush among Latino voters? In 2004, Bush won 44% of the Latino vote, a record for a Republican candidate. In 2024, Trump can still hope to eclipse him. According to an NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll published this Monday, the former president received 40% of voting intentions among Latino voters compared to 54% for Kamala Harris, which represents the most modest Democratic advantage among Latinos since 2008.
Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama respectively won the Latino vote by margins of 33, 38 and 44 percentage points in 202, 2016 and 2012. In 2024, Democrats owe the hemorrhaging of their Latino support to the economy and the cost of living, according to the NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll. Latino voters, and particularly men aged 40 and under, believe that Trump will be better able to manage these two issues which are at the source of their main concerns.
They also trust him more to manage the situation at the southern border.
That being said, Harris edges out Trump in several other categories, including having the right temperament to be president (+28 points), having the necessary mental and physical health (+25 points), being honest and trustworthy (+26 points) and represent change (+21 points).
Voters also trust him more to defend the rights of immigrants (+39 points) and access to abortion (+32 points).
Harris is also more popular with Latinos than Biden was before his withdrawal. But it is still far from the traditional levels of support garnered by Democratic presidential candidates among this important electorate. Trump, on the other hand, is only 4 points behind the record set by Bush in 2004.
(Photo AFP/Getty Images)
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