Donald Trump, the return?
The prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House has haunted the corridors of NATO for months. His thunderous declarations against the European countries of the Alliance, guilty in his eyes of not financing their defense enough, are still in everyone’s memory.
Veteran of European politics, Mark Rutte knows the former President of the United States well. He was able to make himself heard and respected by the American billionaire by agreeing with him about the Europeans’ lack of commitment to their own defense.
However, will he manage to channel the unpredictable former American president, if he were to return to the White House after the November election?
A victory for Democrat Kamala Harris would be greeted with relief at NATO headquarters. But it will not fundamentally call into question the reorientation of American policy from Europe to Asia, according to experts and diplomats.
“I saw the shock on Mark Rutte’s face after Vladimir Putin’s response… How can anyone say such a thing?”
Support Ukraine at all costs
The possible return of Mr. Trump to power in Washington also makes American support for Ukraine more uncertain.
NATO sought to remedy this by placing its military support in kyiv sheltered from all political hazards. The Allies committed at the Washington summit in July to supporting Ukraine with at least 40 billion euros per year, for as long as necessary.
In the same spirit, the coordination of this Western military aid, until now carried out by the United States, will now be carried out by NATO.
But the support of the 32 NATO countries, minus Hungary, for this financial commitment over several years is still far from being acquired. Italy, for example, has already warned that this is out of the question.
The new secretary general will also have to manage the frustrations of Ukraine, determined to one day belong to the Atlantic Alliance, in the face of strong reluctance from countries like the United States or Germany.
Mark Rutte officially appointed NATO Secretary General
Fight against Russia?
NATO’s mission is to prepare for all eventualities, starting with war with Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 accelerated these preparations.
The Alliance thus adopted defense plans at its Vilnius summit in 2023, only partially implemented to date.
NATO must absolutely develop its production of anti-aircraft defense systems, missiles and artillery shells, emphasize diplomats in Brussels. It will be up to the future Secretary General to ensure that the Alliance is in good shape for battle.
Money, the nerve of war
Preparing for war requires a lot of investment and NATO countries committed ten years ago, after Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian Crimean peninsula, to devoting at least 2% of their gross domestic product ( GDP) to military spending. 23 out of 32 have kept this commitment.
Mark Rutte’s Netherlands only achieved this this year, and it will be up to the new secretary general to ensure, at a minimum, that the effort is maintained at a time when some, like the Baltics or Poland, are demanding many more means.
NATO base to be set up near Finland-Russia border
A real challenge for the former Prime Minister of a country adept at budgetary rigor.
Sharing the burden between Europeans and Americans, who alone provide more than half of the expenditure, will also be essential in the Alliance’s ability to maintain its cohesion.
The Chinese threat
NATO is geographically limited to the Euro-Atlantic zone. But the United States has repeatedly called on the Atlantic Alliance to respond to China’s rise.
Beijing’s support for Russia has further reinforced these fears, and the Alliance will, in the future, be more focused on Asia, according to experts.
But the new head of NATO will also have to take into account the reluctance of certain countries, including France, to see the Atlantic Alliance move away from its traditional zone of interests.
