Do the Golden Globes matter?
Meh.
Some quick stats: Over the past 20 years, the winner of the Globe for motion picture – drama has gone on to capture the Oscar for Best Picture just six times. Musical or comedy? Only twice.
That glaring disparity could be because there is zero overlap between the 300 or so international journalists who vote for the Golden Globes and the 8,000 film industry professionals who decide the Academy Awards.
Despite that spotty history, though, there are a few reasons to pay attention to last night’s rather outre results, which saw “Emilia Perez” and “The Brutalist” — not exactly “Bohemian Rhapsody” or “Oppenheimer” — respectively win comedy and drama.
One is that the Oscars are becoming increasingly international. Less apple pie, more croissant. Last year, voters from a record 94 countries were represented. So the tastes of Brits, Brazilians and Bangladeshis have more weight than ever before. Like the Globes, they’re global.
That’s a boon for the Spanish-language French film “Emilia Perez.”
Even so, I’m still not entirely convinced the strange musical on Netflix can go all the way in March. Admiration for director Jacques Audiard’s film far outweighs genuine enthusiasm (with a 66% RottenTomatoes audience score, no Best Picture winner has been that low since 1963’s “Tom Jones”), and it’s proudly weird.
However, Netflix’s French flick undoubtedly got a major boost in the race, winning four trophies Sunday night — the most of any movie.
Another bump went to A24’s “The Brutalist,” starring best actor – drama winner Adrien Brody. But will voters embrace a film with a more than three-hour runtime directed by someone who isn’t named Christopher Nolan or James Cameron?
My hemming and hawing illustrates another reason to keep your eye on the Globe — this year there are still no obvious Oscar front-runners. No Goliath to topple with a rock. No little underdog that could. People are looking for something concrete to latch onto, and the ceremony brought some semblance of clarity.
In 2024, every eventual top Oscar winner (“Oppenheimer,” Emma Stone, Cillian Murphy, DaVine Joy Randolph and Robert Downey Jr.) won Globes as expected. They went on to win almost everything else.
This time, real, sustained momentum has been in short supply.
“Anora,” the marvelous Cannes Palme d’Or recipient that many figured was the movie to beat, has won hardly any big prize since. It will need a SAG Ensemble Award to improve its standing.
It’s safe to say that “A Complete Unknown,” “Sing Sing,” “Nickel Boys” and “Dune – Part Two” are definitely not winning Best Picture.
Really, at least half of the likely nominees will have no shot whatsoever.
The three on strongest ground are “The Brutalist,” “Emilia Perez” and “Conclave.” And then there’s “Anora” and — we haven’t brought her down just yet — “Wicked.”
But “Wicked” only scored one victory Sunday, box office and cinematic achievement — one of the dumbest honors ever concocted. Practically a participation trophy.
As for the actors, Demi Moore now leads the pack for Best Actress for her no-holds-barred performance in “The Substance.” The body horror film is crazy, but Academy voters will now feel more comfortable checking the box next to Moore’s name.
Nicole Kidman’s turn in “Babygirl,” meanwhile, will be considered too sexually forward to cross the Oscars finish line. Angelina Jolie has yet to win a significant accolade for playing Maria Callas in “Maria.” As fine as she is as the “Casta Diva” opera singer, Jolie could be cast aside.
Brody took home actor – drama Sunday, but Timothée Chalamet is gaining a ton of traction as Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” Oscar nomination voting begins Wednesday at a moment that moviegoers are still buzzing about Chalamet’s impressive transformation into the rock god. He is still in the running.
And perhaps Ralph Fiennes, well liked in “Conclave,” could manage an Olivia Colman and benefit from split affections for Adrien and Timmy. Who knows?
Plenty can and will change from now until March 5. Consider that in January 2020, “Parasite” didn’t win the Globe for best drama, the Critics Choice Award for best film or the top Directors Guild honor.
What it did win was the Oscar for Best Picture.
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