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Who is the best replacement for Saka in FPL?

Bukayo Saka’s (£10.5m) hamstring injury is set to shake up millions of managers’ festive plans in Fantasy Premier League.

Prior to sustaining the injury against Crystal Palace on Saturday evening, the Arsenal winger could be found in over 44 per cent of squads, which made him the third most-owned midfielder in the game.

His ownership has already plummeted to 37 per cent and, with Gunners boss Mikel Arteta confirming Saka will miss the busy festive period, further heavy sales are expected ahead of Thursday’s 11:00 GMT deadline.

Here, The Scout helps managers to pick the best replacement, with Mohamed Salah (£13.5m) and Cole Palmer (£11.2m) omitted from the analysis because they are already the two most-owned players in the game, and must-haves in midfield.

Who is getting the most points per match?

Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo (£7.6m) has matched Saka’s total of 107 points for the season, averaging 6.3 points per match (ppm) to place joint-fourth in the overall standings.

Tottenham Hotspur duo James Maddison (£7.6m) and Son Heung-min (£9.8m) have averaged 5.7 and 5.6ppm respectively. Maddison has scored eight goals and assisted a further five, which gives him a total of 13 goal involvements this season – more than any other player in this analysis.

Liverpool’s Luis Diaz (£7.4m) and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) have also reached double-figures for goal involvements, with the former having the edge by 5.4ppm to 4.9.

Selected midfielders for points per match
Player G + A Pts Pts/match
Mbeumo 12 107 6.3
Maddison 13 97 5.7
Son 11 79 5.6
Diaz 10 86 5.4
Fernandes 10 83 4.9
Whom 6 44 4.9
Bowen 10 81 4.8
Iwobi 8 81 4.8
Amad 9 67 4.5
Rogers 8 75 4.4
Kluivert 8 73 4.3

Elsewhere, Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers has proven the No 1 midfielder for value in 2024/25, in terms of points per millions returned. At a cost of £5.3m, his five goals and three assists have earned him 75 points, which means he has provided managers with 14.2 points per million spent.

Fulham’s Alex Iwobi (£5.8m), AFC Bournemouth’s Justin Kluivert (£5.5m) and Man Utd’s Amad (£5.3m) have also offered great value in the sub-£6.0m bracket.

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Who offers the greatest goal threat?

Liverpool’s Diaz leads the way when it comes to getting big chances, or situations where the player is expected to score.

The Colombian has been supplied with 12 such opportunities this season and has converted 22.6 per cent of his shots.

Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli (£6.7m) and Newcastle United’s Anthony Gordon (£7.2m) enter the conversation at this point, with their 10 big chances being identical to the totals of Mbeumo, Maddison and Fernandes.

Martinelli’s goal threat makes him the best Saka replacement among the Arsenal midfielders. His 10 big chances are more than the COMBINED nine of Martin Odegaard (£8.3m) and Leandro Trossard (£6.8m), while his 22.2 per cent goal conversion rate is more than TWICE the 10.9 per cent of Saka himself.

Crystal Palace’s Ismail Sarr (£5.7m) and Brighton & Hove Albion’s Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) also enter the frame here. Both have had nine big chances, while they also rank among the top three players for shots in the box.

Selected midfielders’ goal threat
Player Shots in box Goal conversion Big chances
Diaz 23 22.6% 12
Mbeumo 19 35.7% 10
Maddison 20 28.6% 10
Martinelli 16 22.2% 10
Fernandes 23 8.0% 10
Gordon 24 9.7% 10
Sarr 25 14.3% 9
Mito 27 9.4% 9
Whom 16 17.6% 9
Son 20 16.1% 8
Rogers 20 15.6% 8
Bowen 29 9.3% 6
Who is involved in the most big chances?

Son’s ability to also create big chances lifts his potential considerably. In addition to eight big chances, he has created a further 12 for his team-mates. This means he has been involved in 20 big chances, more than any other player in the table below.

Fernandes and Mbeumo also rank among the top three for big-chance involvements, with 19 and 17 respectively.

However, the high placing of Sarr and Rogers in the table shows it’s not necessarily all about finding a premium-priced replacement for Saka.

If you’re looking to free up more funds to invest in your forward line, there is big value to be found in midfield right now.

Big chance (BC) stats for selected midfielders
Player BC BC created BC involvement
Son 8 12 20
Fernandes 10 9 19
Mbeumo 10 7 17
Sarr 9 7 16
Diaz 12 3 15
Rogers 8 7 15
Gordon 10 4 14
Maddison 10 4 14
Mito 9 5 14
Martinelli 10 3 13
Bowen 6 6 12
Whom 9 2 11
Who has the best fixtures?

Factoring in the upcoming schedules can also help to refine your targets.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), four of Crystal Palace’s next six matches score just two, which ticks another box for Sarr as a great differential at just one per cent ownership.

Clubs’ fixtures in FDR – next six Gameweeks
Club No. of matches scoring 2 FDR total
Crystal Palace 4 15
Man City 4 16
Fulham 3 16
Liverpool 3 16
Southampton 2 16
Brighton 3 17
Chelsea 2 17
Newcastle 2 17

Four of Manchester City’s next six matches also score only two in the FDR, with Kevin De Bruyne (£9.5m) and Phil Foden (£9.1m) similarly overlooked, each selected by less than five per cent of managers. There’s no doubt that both have considerable upside, but their lack of form still has to be a concern, particularly when there are so many in-form picks right now.

Liverpool and Fulham’s matches score a total of 16 in the FDR across this spell, which gives Diaz and Iwobi the opportunity to extend their fine form.

Newcastle’s Gordon and Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandez (£5.1m) also have the form and fixtures to offer great value over this coming period.

So, who is the best Saka replacement?

As always with these decisions, it ultimately comes down to your squad and tactical approach. If you’re looking for an Arsenal attacker as a direct replacement for Saka then Martinelli has the goal threat to make an instant impact at home to Ipswich Town this weekend.

As evidenced by his display against Spurs, Diaz is becoming more accustomed to his new role up front for Liverpool. That versatility may go against him at home to Leicester, with the Colombian potentially being moved to the left flank to accommodate Jota in midweek. However, as a long-term pick, now could be the time to buy Diaz, with one eye on a potential Double Gameweek ahead for the Reds, with their derby clash against Everton yet to be rescheduled.

At a point in the season where rotation is rife, Mbeumo is one of the very few players who will offer you a security of starts, which cannot be said about Son and Maddison in the short-term. Although the Brentford star has a tough run of opponents ahead, he tends to play as a forward against the bigger teams, and he also has penalty duties.

Elsewhere, Sarr and Rogers offer the strongest all-round potential in the budget bracket, and Iwobi and Fernandez also have the schedules to offer healthy competition at £6.0m and under.

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