Donald Trump's new anti-Chinese outrage

He promised that when he entered the White House on January 20, he would put an end to this “total scam.” He demanded from the small country “safe, efficient and reliable” operation of the canal, under penalty of restitution to the United States. After 24 hours of silence that can be attributed to astonishment, Jose Raul Mulino, the president of Panama, firmly responded that “every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent areas belongs to Panama and will continue to belong to it” . And that “the sovereignty and independence” of the country are not negotiable.

The precedent of 1989

The populist billionaire's ranting against sovereign countries is not limited to the Panamanian case. Last week, he repeated that annexing Canada to make it the 51st American state would be “an excellent idea.” His lack of moral barrier on this type of subject is not new. In 2019, during his first term, he repeatedly floated the idea of ​​buying Greenland from Denmark.

The Panama Canal has a much stronger resonance in the American imagination. After the vain attempts of the French at the end of the 19th century under the leadership of Ferdinand de Lesseps, it was the United States which reopened this pharaonic project in 1904 to complete it ten years later. To have free rein, they favored the outbreak of a revolution in what was at the time a Colombian province. The movement resulted in the declaration of independence of the Republic of Panama in November 1903, immediately recognized by the United States. In return, the Americans were granted complete control of more than 1,400 square kilometers, or eight kilometers on either side of the canal.

The colonial adventure did not last more than a century. Unrest against the American presence increased from the 1960s onwards. So much so that in 1977, President (Democrat) Jimmy Carter signed a treaty which returned the entire zone to Panama on December 31, 1999. The period The transitional period did not go smoothly. In December 1989, the United States intervened militarily in Panama to depose Manuel Noriega, the commander of the country's armed forces, a former CIA agent who was involved in drug trafficking. One of the official reasons for this operation, called “Just Cause”, was to guarantee the protection of the waterway.

Record revenues

We understand the keen American interest in reading the figures. According to the United States federal services, 72% of ships in transit are to or from American ports. Thanks to the canal, the maritime distance between New York and San Francisco has fallen below 10,000 kilometers, while it is greater than 22,000 kilometers when crossing Cape Horn. The United States, China, Japan and South Korea are the main users of the route, which concentrates 5% of global maritime trade. American petroleum products take it, from the Gulf of Mexico to Asia. Grains too.

With the commissioning of a new set of locks in 2016, the largest container ships can navigate there. Calibrated for ships 366 meters long and 49 meters wide, the Panama Canal has adapted to the race for gigantism. The financial results are there: this month the Canal Authority paid nearly 2.5 billion dollars (2.4 billion euros) to the Panamanian tax authorities, thanks to a record turnover of 4.8 billion euros over the period October 2023/September 2024.

China in the viewfinder

This insolent financial health, generated by goods passage rights, arouses the ire of Donald Trump. Financial health which flourished despite a historic drought which slowed traffic between the two oceans, the canal being supplied with fresh water. Teacher at the University of the Antilles, Laurent Giacobbi indicates in a recent note from Ceri, the International Research Center of Sciences Po, that the number of daily transits had been reduced from 36 to 24 last February and that the waiting time ships could stretch for up to three weeks.

But it is above all the influence of China which incited Donald Trump to excess. The impacts of climate change are forcing Panama to consider a major project to keep the canal watered in the future. “The question of financing the work could constitute an additional opportunity for China to extend its influence in Latin America,” writes Laurent Giacobbi. In 2017, the country broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan and the following year joined “the new Silk Roads”, this network overseen by the Chinese power. “The People's Republic of China has become Panama's second largest trading partner. The increasing control of Chinese companies over the management of ports and free zones is a matter of concern in the United States,” continues the researcher.