An SEC team is traveling north to play a Big Ten squad on the first day of winter in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The dream many had when the 12-team format was announced is reality.
The thing is, that cold weather might not provide much advantage to Ohio State.
Given how Tennessee has run the ball and stopped the run this season and the experience the Volunteers already have in chilly temperatures, a forecasted high of 33 degrees and low of 23 for an 8 p.m. kickoff on Dec. 21 might not be much of a handicap for the Orange and White. Even if a home crowd will still boost the Buckeyes in an undoubtedly raucous environment.
“Not sure what the temperature will be up there at night,” Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said on Sunday. “(I) know it won’t be sunny and 85. We played in 30-degree weather a week ago. For us, a lot of our practices are in the morning. We’re outside, it’ll be similar temperatures to what you’re going to get up there. Our guys got to be able to handle anything that comes at them. That’s weather, it’s outside distractions, it’s us getting ready to go be our best 11-on-11 between the white lines and we’ll be ready to handle that and operate at a high level.”
The kickoff temperature for Tennessee’s game at Vanderbilt on Nov. 30 was 41 degrees, but it dropped to the low 30s by the time the contest concluded. The Volunteers rushed the ball for 281 yards on their way to a 36-23 victory over the Commodores on six yards per carry. Vandy was held to just 108 rushing yards on 3.5 yards per carry.
To Heupel’s point about practicing in similar temperatures in Knoxville as there will be for his team’s matchup with Ohio State, it’s already snowed during a Tennessee practice this week.
That said, it will be a lower temperature at kickoff than the Volunteers’ roster has experienced in their Tennessee careers. The projected 32-degree temperature at kickoff would be the coldest for the Vols since a 2015 game against Missouri, which was 28 degrees at kick. They won that affair 19-8.
“During the course of the leadup to kickoff, we’ll be outside as much as we possibly can,” Heupel said. “Typically the temperatures at some point during this preparation will mirror what we think we’ll have on Saturday night up there. We typically get outside unless something’s not right with the grass fields here as far as (being) wet, damp, frosted, whatever it might be.”
Running the ball is always an emphasis in cold weather, though an overreliance on the run game can be bad, too. But hits are felt more when the temperature drops, which ups the importance of physicality and winning battles in the trenches for teams.
Tennessee has the ninth-best rushing offense in college football, picking up 232 yards per game. Dylan Sampson stars as one of the nation’s premier running backs, racking up 1,485 yards at a clip of 5.8 yards per carry with 22 touchdowns. He leads the SEC in both yards and scores. He’s racked up 100 yards in 10 of the Volunteers’ 12 games this season.
Tennessee has the eighth-best rushing defense in college football, allowing 99.6 yards per game. A deep and disruptive defensive line has the Volunteers tied for ninth nationally in tackles for loss with 93. The Volunteers have outrushed every single one of their opponents by an average margin of 132.4 yards per contest in 2024.
“I think in a game like this the line of scrimmage matters,” Heupel said. “You’ve got to do a great job against the run. We’re going to have to defend their explosive playmakers out on the perimeter. We’ve got to do a great job of bottling the quarterback up.”
That doesn’t mean Ohio State will be at a disadvantage in the cold, either. The Buckeyes played in colder weather than Tennessee did vs. Vanderbilt when they faced Michigan on Nov. 30, and feature their own vaunted run defense ranked seventh nationally – one spot ahead of the Volunteers – with 96.8 yards allowed per game.
Plus, a home crowd that showed it can still get loud against Indiana and Michigan will be charged up behind Ohio State.
“It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity up until this point,” Ryan Day said on Sunday. “I mean, this has never happened before. So I think it’s exciting. I think it’s exciting for our players. I think it’s exciting for our coaches and staff. It’s exciting for our fans to be part of something that’s never really been done before. Also having a night game in the Horseshoe, and who knows what the weather will be. It’ll be great. It’ll be electric.”
The Buckeyes’ own rushing game has struggled its last two games behind a reshuffled offensive line, but Ohio State should be able to rely on its passing game more than Tennessee can. The Buckeyes are better than the Volunteers in passing yards per game, passing yards per attempt and completion percentage in 2024. Day acknowledged recently that OSU needs to do a better job playing to that strength than it did against Michigan, but still expressed confidence in the offensive line.
“These guys have what it takes to go make this run,” Day said of his OL. “So we’ve got to help them. We’ve got to help them. And I think there’s ways to do that … there’s a lot of ways that we can do it and we will do it.”
Regardless of the forecast on Dec. 21, Ohio State is excited for the mystique and pageantry that will accompany a home matchup with an SEC team in the CFP.
“We felt like this may shake out like this, and so we’ve had an idea,” Day said. “But now we’re in it, so now you know exactly what it is. Now you’re really diving into it, and I’m telling you right now, our guys are excited about it. You can feel it up there at the training table, and we’re gonna have a great week of practice this week, and the coaches are excited. So here we go, and this is an opportunity that we gotta go jump on right now.”
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