With the news that the Niners are activating Dre Greenlaw, Dan Johnson evaluates a Matthew Stafford prop bet for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 15.
Quick turnaround these frisky Los Angeles Rams, who just upset the AFC-favorite Buffalo Bills 44-42 on Sunday afternoon. Probably feels even quicker needing to have done all that scoring within sixty pressure-cooker minutes. But this is a Rams team that’s won on a must-have short-week before, back in Week 9 against the Vikings. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams will all seek to snuff out whatever burgeoning candle flame the Niners have begun to find with Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Deebo Samuel.
Having said all that, what I’m seeing from Matthew Stafford right now is pure vintage football. Remember—their trajectory this year (injuries at the beginning, exhilarating wins strung together with a fully-healthy offense) mirrors their 2023 season, when Stafford was among the five best quarterbacks in the league for the last month of the season.
With that in mind, let’s evaluate his short-week, rivalry-/away-game prop market.
Matthew Stafford longest completion u35.5 yards (-115)
From the jump, I was contemplating checking out Stafford’s longest completion market, which, right now, sits at 35.5 yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook). I’m inclined to take the under, there, as I think the Rams are going to play a pretty tight game and let their playmakers get out in space. If betting on a veteran, aging quarterback to dink and dunk his way to what he hopes will be a clean win on a short week, this might be the safer play.
Let’s start here: last time Stafford faced the Niners, it was in Week 3, and he only threw for 160 yards. He was without most of his offensive line, and both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Now, the way the Rams’ receivers play is extremely, brutally physical; they’re excellent blockers by design, and they want to hit you right in the mouth from the jump (per se). We might see a few plays or drives without the consistent presence(s) of Nacua and/or Kupp. No matter. Stafford throws to whoever’s open, and McVay rolls him out on naked bootlegs to bend the game his way. Demarcus Robinson might miss this game, but don’t forget about the ultra-important utility pieces who tend to rack up anywhere between 30-75 yards, collectively, for Stafford some games: Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, Kyren Williams out of the backfield, TuTu Atwell, etc. Stafford feeds these guys high-value touches like they’re superstars when he must.
The Niners get Dre Greenlaw back today, so their front-seven is going to be feistier than it was in Week 14 against the Bears. I’d expect this to prompt Stafford to feel his way into his hip-firing, quick-draw gunslinger mode (also per se), which we saw so often in his vintage Detroit days. Tonight’s San Francisco pass rush should force the play-calling to include a lot of short passes as extensions of the run game. McVay will have schemed it this way. Meanwhile, Stafford’s pockets are getting cleaner, the division is getting more exciting, and this 2024 Rams team wants to sweep the Niners this year when they’re already down. The question, however, remains: just how inclined are the Rams to let Stafford take risks he was taking against Buffalo when this pivotal NFC West matchup could be won at the line of scrimmage?
The Niners are fourth in the NFL in defensive passing DVOA, and that matters, here. They haven’t allowed a 250+-yard passer since Geno Smith in Week 6; the only one who’s broken 200 since then is, again, Geno Smith.
Bottom Line
However, even though both these teams scored over 38 points on Sunday, I don’t think there’s going to be any shortage of scoring. I just think the Rams are going to exploit the short game a lot more because the Niners defensive rushing DVOA is 20th in the NFL.
Stafford’s overall passing line for the night is 243.5 yards at -115 on DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’d rather an aggregate bet as opposed to an acute bet (meaning, the longest completion could get broken on a single passing play), maybe consider taking the under there. But, as much as I love Matthew Stafford, and believe in this Rams offense, I don’t think they get the win today via big air-yard passes. And I don’t think they’ll get 35+ yards on a screen.
Best bet: Matthew Stafford longest completion u35.5 yards (-115)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
