Is Brest really already qualified for the play-offs?

By winning against PSV Eindhoven (1-0) on Tuesday in the Champions League, Brest qualified for the play-offs of the competition, according to several statistics sites. But is this really the case?

It has been announced since Tuesday, Brest will continue its adventure in the Champions League beyond the group stage. By winning against PSV Eindhoven (1-0), the Bretons brought their total points to 13 units and validated their place among the top 24. This is what several statistics sites, such as Football Meets Data, assure “100%”. The UEFA site is more cautious: only the Liverpool team is officially qualified for the play-offs (and even for the eighth).

Brest cannot be overtaken by 20 teams

When reading the ranking, however, Brest's 13 points do not yet seem to officially ensure the Bretons' presence in the play-offs. Three teams placed beyond 24th rank still seem mathematically able to overtake the Brestois in the event of a clear round combined with two Breton setbacks. This is the case of Feyenoord, 25th with seven points but still three games to play (i.e. a potential total of 14 or 16 points), but also of Stuttgart (26th, 4 points, 3 games to play) and Sparta Prague ( 28th, 4 points, 3 games to play), which should – for the last two cities – make up a huge goal difference compared to the Brestois.

In fact, this will not be possible since these three teams will have direct confrontations against other opponents in the race for qualification in the play-offs which will make a combined flawless performance of all the teams concerned impossible (like Feyenoord-Prague this Wednesday, or Stuttgart-PSG). The enormous density between fifth place Brest and 25th qualifier makes impossible a scenario of a Brest elimination which cannot be doubled by 20 or more teams.

Let's imagine this simulation. If PSG wins its two matches against Manchester City and Stuttgart, it would have 14 points. Manchester City (currently 8 points, which must still face Juventus, PSG and Bruges) could only take 14, just like Juve (8 points, which must face Manchester City, Bruges and Benfica). These presumed scenarios would then prevent Bruges (15th with nine points and future opponent of Juventus and City) from overtaking Brest. Any other result from these formations would result in the same outcome: namely a better ranking for Brest and a place among the 24 best.