The government's decision to take responsibility for the PLFSS with 49.3 plunges the markets into the unknown. The French debt borrowing rate diverges dangerously from that of Germany.
The risk of censorship from the Barnier government plunges the markets into the unknown. Worried about the turn of events and the government's forceful passage of the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), investors are massively turning away from French debt. The rate on French government bonds with a ten-year maturity rose to 2.92% and its German equivalent, considered a benchmark on a European scale, was at 2.04% in the afternoon. The rate spread (the « spread ») climbed to 88 basis points (0.87%). France's risk premium on the markets is now just shy of 90 basis points, a peak reached last week when the fall of the Barnier government seemed to be approaching.
The tension eased a little at the end of last week as the government discussed adjustments to the budget. Without a majority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier activated article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the approval of a text without a vote. In response, La France insoumise (LFI) and the National Rally (RN) announced that they would submit a motion of censure. Even with the concessions already made by the Prime Minister, notably on electricity taxation, Marine Le Pen confirmed that the RN group would table a motion of censure and that the far-right deputies would vote on all the motions, “where (they) come from”including from the left.
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Budget, pensions, censorship: financial markets are panicking
Warning signal
The digging of «spread» between French and German rates is a warning signal. It reflects the confidence, or rather the distrust, that major international creditors, notably Chinese and American, have towards our economy. France now borrows more expensively than Spain or Portugal, two countries which were the weak link in Europe. France's borrowing cost is now close to that of Greece, a country that was almost bankrupt around fifteen years ago. THE «spread» between French and German rates is now close to its 2012 level, when the euro zone was threatened with breakup with the near-bankruptcy of Greece.
The fall of the government would inevitably cause a new surge in rates. Very bad news for France whose debt “now reached 3,228 billion euros” recalled the Prime Minister in recent days. The rise in rates will indeed end up having repercussions on the annual burden of public debt. We “will reach 60 billion euros per year” just to pay the interest on the debt, warned the Minister of the Budget, Laurent Saint-Martin, last Wednesday. The situation in France is even weighing on the euro which sank on Monday. Around 5 p.m., the European currency fell 1.00% against the greenback, to 1.0470 dollars, and lost 0.16% against the British currency, to 82.91 pence per euro.
On the other hand, relative calm reigns on the French equity market. The CAC 40 finished stable at +0.02%, despite political events and – also – the announcements this weekend of the departure of Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares. For now, “French stocks have already suffered a lot and for the moment, the debt market is in the front line”explains an analyst. In November, the CAC 40 lost almost 4% after having already fallen by 3% in October. And since the start of the year, the flagship index of the Paris Stock Exchange is down 5.25%. Germany is also facing significant economic and political challenges, but the Dax on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange has gained nearly 15% since the start of the year. French assets, public debt and shares, fell on the Paris Stock Exchange from June with the dissolution of the National Assembly. Since then, the markets have lived to the rhythm of political uncertainties.
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