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Wall Street expected to decline, French policy in the crosshairs – 02/12/2024 at 3:41 p.m.

FILE PHOTO: A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City

par Diana Mandia

Wall Street is expected to fall slightly at the opening on Monday and the European stock markets are progressing at mid-session, even if that of was affected for most of the morning by concerns regarding a possible motion of censure against the French government . Futures on New York indices signal an opening on Wall Street down 0.06% for the Dow Jones, 0.07% for the Standard & Poor's-500 and 0.02% for the Nasdaq. In Paris , the CAC 40, which had been in the red for most of the morning, gained 0.10% to 7,242.45 points around 12:24 GMT. In Frankfurt, the advances by 1.08% and in London, the FTSE 100 gains 0.34%.

The EuroStoxx 50 index is up 0.53%, the FTSEurofirst 300 is up 0.59% and the Stoxx 600 is up 0.55%.

The main European stock markets are in the green on Monday, although Paris is faltering in the face of the political situation in , the government's draft social security budget threatening to trigger a motion of censure and bring down an executive which is not in place only since last September.

Prime Minister Michel Barnier pledged on Monday that there will be no delisting of medicines in 2025, a concession requested by the National Rally (RN) which seems to have calmed the markets a little while the government, in the absence of the necessary support, could resort to article 49.3 of the Constitution which allows the adoption of the draft Social Security budget without a vote but opens the way to a motion of censure.

According to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank, there does not seem to be a solution to satisfy Marine Le Pen's demands while reducing the budget deficit in line with EU requirements. Michel Barnier could make concessions, but in this case he will have to convince investors that things will work out, the analyst said.

“There is nothing normal or healthy about this situation. The markets are experiencing upheavals, the real economy is in a fog,” write ODDO analysts in a note published Monday.

The difficulties of Stellantis, whose action is suffering (-8.6%) after the announcement of the abrupt resignation of its general director, Carlos Tavares, and the November manufacturing PMI indicator for France, which posted the most sharp decline in new orders since the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, also does not help optimism.

VALUES TO FOLLOW AT WALL STREET

In the United States, investors are awaiting a series of economic data later this week, including the monthly jobs report, to assess the interest rate trajectory of the Federal Reserve, which is due to rule on borrowing costs at its next meeting on December 18.

In terms of values, clothing retailer GAP gained 3.5% in pre-market trading after JP Morgan raised its recommendation to “overweight” from “neutral”.

VALUES IN EUROPE

The automobile index fell by 0.7%, weighed down by Stellantis. Renault and Valeo fell between 0.8 and 1.4% in the wake of the manufacturer born from the merger between PSA and FCA.

Ipsos, which confirmed on Monday discussions for a takeover of Kantar Media, lost 2.9%.

Delivery Hero fell 11.4%, the delivery platform having announced on Monday that delivery people from its Glovo unit in Spain would be hired as employees.

RATE

Bond yields are falling in the euro zone, as investors digest last month's sharp drop in manufacturing activity and a further drop in demand that dashed hopes of an imminent recovery.

The ten-year German Bund yield thus fell 4.1 basis points to 2.0470%. The two-year yielded 3.9 basis points to 1.9160%

The “spread” or yield gap between the German Bund and the French 10-year OAT widens to 82.4 bp after Matignon's announcements. It had climbed at the start of the session to 86.4 bp, investors worrying about possible censorship from Michel Barnier's government. In the United States, yields are rising as investors position themselves for numerous indicator releases this week, including the monthly employment report due Friday, which could be decisive before the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting from December 18.

The yield on ten-year Treasuries rose 1.3 basis points to 4.2071%. The two-year rose 1.8 basis points to 4.1920%.

CHANGES

The euro fell 0.52% on Monday to $1.0520 and recorded its biggest monthly decline since May 2023, weighed down by French policy. The dollar continues to strengthen at the start of a key week for the outlook for US interest rates and gains 0.49% against a basket of reference currencies.

Several Fed officials will speak this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, and traders estimate the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on the 18th is about 66%. December.

The US currency received an additional boost this weekend from US President-elect Donald Trump, who warned emerging BRICS countries against any attempt to replace the greenback with another currency .

OIL

Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by strong industrial activity in China, the world's second largest consumer of oil, and by the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, where Israel resumed its attacks against Lebanon despite a peace agreement. ceasefire.

Brent rose 1.07% to $72.61 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 1.09% to $68.74.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR DECEMBER 2:

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

US 15h00 ISM manufacturier Nov. 47,5 46,5

(Some data may have a slight lag)

(Written by Diana Mandiá, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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