Aleppo would have fallen into the hands of jihadists, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), a well-informed NGO based in the United Kingdom, warned on Saturday November 30. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied rebel factions have taken control of most of the city,” located in northern Syria, as well as “government buildings and prisons,” he said. she indicated. The Syrian army confirmed in a statement that anti-regime fighters had entered “large parts” of the city, reporting dozens of soldiers killed during violent clashes.
A conquering alliance
The jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an alliance of several armed groups dominated by the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, as well as rebel factions supported by Turkey, launched their offensive in the north of the Syria this Wednesday. The fighting left more than 300 dead, including around a hundred government forces and their allies, but also 28 civilians, according to the OSDH.
Their return to Aleppo is all the more striking because in 2016, the regime's reconquest of all the rebel sectors of the metropolis constituted an essential victory for Bashar Al Assad and his allies, including Russia. On Friday, the Kremlin also called on the Syrian authorities to “restore order as quickly as possible” in Aleppo.
A hard blow for Bashar Al Assad
The offensive is undeniably a hard blow for Bashar Al Assad. Russia and Iran, its two main allies, are no longer as available to help as in 2015 and 2016. Moscow is absorbed in its war in Ukraine, while Lebanese Hezbollah — supported by Iran — is entirely mobilized in its war against Israel.
An operation prepared for several months
According to Dareen Khalifa, expert from the International Crisis Group, this operation, prepared for several months, was designed based on this geostrategic change. She notes that it was launched on the same day that a truce came into effect in Lebanon between the Israeli army and Hezbollah. The rebels “think that the Iranians are weakened and that the regime is cornered,” she emphasizes. In recent months, in parallel with the war in Lebanon, Israel has also carried out several strikes on Syrian territory, claiming to want to neutralize Hezbollah by targeting its arms transfers coordinated with Tehran and the Syrian forces.
The dazzlingness of the offensive “reminds how weak the regime is”, judges analyst Aaron Stein, adding that the Syrian forces had probably let down their guard thanks to the precarious calm which reigned in the north.
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