Benjamin Netanyahu targeted by an ICC arrest warrant, a strong signal that risks disappointing

INTERNATIONAL – A strong decision, with limited consequences. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this Thursday, November 21, accusing him of “crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least October 8, 2023 until at least May 20, 2024, the day on which the prosecution filed the requests for arrest warrants “. However, “Benjamin Netanyahu is not expected to be arrested”specifies François Dubuisson, specialist in international law, with the HuffPost.

Despite their strong symbolism, ICC arrest warrants have a restricted scope when issued against heads of state. “The International Criminal Court does not have an international police force at its service that it could send to all States to carry out its mandates,” explains this professor of international law at the Free University of Brussels. Furthermore, Israel is not among its members, and therefore has no obligation to cooperate.

On the other hand, this arrest warrant forces Benjamin Netanyahu to stay in Israel, because if he enters the territory of one of the 124 member states of the ICC, the latter are obliged to arrest and detain him. transfer to The Hague, where the Court sits. A very uncomfortable position for a head of state, since it requires him to cancel almost all his diplomatic visits abroad.

However, the Israeli Prime Minister “will probably engage in calculated provocations”, anticipate with the HuffPost political scientist Bertrand Badie, professor at Sciences Po and specialist in international issues. Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, also the subject of an ICC arrest warrant since March 2023, and who nevertheless went last September to Mongolia, a member state of the Court. “ Given Netanyahu's character, we should expect him to display some similar bravado.” warns Bertrand Badie.

Another blow to Israeli relations

Despite this arrest warrant, the Israeli Prime Minister will be able to continue to visit his main ally: the United States. Washington has in fact not signed the Rome Statute and does not recognize the decisions of the ICC. “When he returns to the White House, Donald Trump will certainly invite Benjamin Netanyahu to symbolically show that the United States is ignoring the procedure before the ICC”believes François Dubuisson. In any case, the White House has already “categorically rejected” the Court's decision this Thursday.

However, the arrest warrant issued for the Israeli Prime Minister “ will encourage a certain number of hesitant heads of state to position themselves in a more assertive manner towards Israel”, warns Bertrand Badie. “We can expect fewer foreign delegations to visit Benjamin Netanyahu, and even Western democracies to re-evaluate their foreign policies towards Israel,” continues the political scientist.

An observation shared by François Dubuisson, who emphasizes that the ICC accusations are “extremely serious” and risk tarnishing the image of Israel, already strongly questioned with the war in Gaza. According to figures from the Hamas government's Health Ministry, the conflict has left at least 44,056 dead on the Palestinian side, since the terrorist attack which killed 1,206 people in Israel. The ICC also issued an arrest warrant against former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, again for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

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