Ukraine: US approval for missiles is unlikely to be a turning point – News

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian army destroyed an ammunition depot in Russia with an American ATACMS missile. Yesterday it was announced that at least one British Storm Shadow missile hit a Russian command center. The two attacks appeared to be successful. Other missiles were intercepted.

The American and British missiles increase the resilience of Ukraine, which is now on the defensive. However, the rapid deployments do not indicate that there is a longer-term Ukrainian strategy behind them. It was probably primarily about sending a signal – to Moscow, but at least also to its increasingly demoralized own troops.

In the short term, the American, British and possibly soon French missiles should provide some relief. In addition, the anti-personnel mines banned by an international agreement but now announced by the USA could slow the advance of the Russian armed forces.

This in turn should enable Ukraine to hold the conquered Russian territory near Kursk for a while – and thus use it as a negotiating chip should there actually be talks between Kiev and Moscow in the near future.

This is unlikely to bring about a change

However, only very few military experts believe that the new weapons technology options will bring a turnaround in the war and give Ukraine a lasting upper hand. Washington’s promise did not come in time enough for this. In addition, the arsenals are too small and the supplies are far too low for these effective missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers.

Kiev can now probably attack a few selected Russian targets for a short period of time, but cannot plan sustained or widespread bombing. Russia also had plenty of time to prepare for Ukraine’s new military options. They increase the price of war for Russia, but not enough to persuade the Kremlin to give in.

It is therefore not surprising that US President Joe Biden’s change of decision was welcomed in Kiev, but not enthusiastically. We know that once again it was done too hesitantly and too late.

Russian ICBM

Russia, in turn, is reacting angrily to the new situation. However, people in Moscow don’t seem to be really nervous, even though Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is talking about a new phase of the war and announcing that they will react accordingly.

According to reports and primarily as a symbolic act, Russia has now fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into Ukraine for the first time. At the same time, it repeats its nuclear threats. However, they are gradually losing their effectiveness in the West.

For the time being, no really new situation is emerging on the battlefield. In the best case scenario for Ukraine, it now has a little more maneuvering space. And therefore slightly better cards so that you don’t have to give in completely in future negotiations.