Ukraine has fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia a day after launching long-range American ATACMS missiles, raising fears of a major escalation in the nearly three-year war.
Ukraine’s government has yet to confirm the strikes on Tuesday and Wednesday, which come days after United States President Joe Biden’s administration reportedly removed the restrictions on the use of the long-range, US-made weapons after lobbying by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Ukrainian leader has been pressing his Western allies to allow the use of the ATACMS, or Army Tactical Missile System, amid military gains by Russian forces in recent months. Kyiv has received more than $100bn in aid from the West, including more than $61bn from the US – the largest source of military aid to Ukraine.
Russia has warned that Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russian territory could result in an escalation. On Thursday, the Ukrainian air force said Moscow fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into its territory. But Moscow has yet to confirm the claim.
Where did the attack take place, and does it spell an escalation in the war?
What happened?
“Two Storm Shadow cruise missiles, six HIMARS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket System] rockets, and 67 unmanned aerial vehicles were neutralised by air defence systems,” Russia’s Ministry of Defence said in a statement on Thursday without sharing the location of the attack or information about any damage caused.
Russian war correspondent accounts posted videos on Telegram in which at least 14 explosions can be heard. Most of these explosions were preceded by a sharp whistle resembling the sound of an incoming missile.
The videos show a plume of black smoke rising above what appears to be a residential area.
The Reuters news agency reported the pro-Russian Two Majors channel posted on Telegram that Ukraine fired up to 12 Storm Shadow missiles into Russia’s Kursk region, which lies on Ukraine’s border. The channel carried pictures of pieces of the missile in which the name Storm Shadow was clearly visible.
Where did they hit?
Al Jazeera’s Sanad verification agency used geolocation to deduce that the attack took place on Maryino, a village in Kursk.
What are Storm Shadow missiles?
The Storm Shadow missile is an Anglo-French, long-range cruise missile. It is launched from military aircraft in the air rather than from the ground. It is also called the SCALP missile.
The missiles are manufactured by the United Kingdom and produced using components from the US. They can hit targets up to 250km (155 miles) away.
Each missile costs nearly $1m. In May 2023, the UK confirmed that it had sent Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine on the condition that Ukraine use them only in its own territory against Russian forces. Western countries have backed Ukraine since Russia invaded its neighbour in February 2022.
According to Ukrainian media, the Storm Shadow has previously been used in Russia-annexed Crimea. However, this is the first time Ukraine has used these weapons inside Russian territory.
Why were these deployed now?
The green light to use the long-range weapons came after the US, Ukraine and South Korea said North Korean troops were deployed in the Kursk region. A portion of Kursk has been taken over by Ukrainian forces during an incursion that began in August.
Washington, Kyiv and Seoul said 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia. Additionally, they have accused Pyongyang of supplying weapons to Moscow. Moscow and Pyongyang have not officially confirmed the military deployment. The two countries signed a mutual defence pact in June during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to North Korea.
The “aim of these Western nations is to support Ukraine, particularly in the area of Russia that Ukraine has occupied, Kursk”, according to Al Jazeera’s diplomatic correspondent James Bays.
How did we get here?
The US secretly sent long-range missiles to Ukraine in March 2023 and imposed the same conditions on their use as the UK did on the Storm Shadows.
Recently, there were indications that Ukraine’s allies would lift the restrictions.
In September, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his UK counterpart, Foreign Secretary David Lammy, visited Kyiv and met Zelenskyy. When thanking the officials for visiting him, Zelenskyy posted on his X account: “It is important that Ukrainian arguments are heard. This includes the long-range weapons.”
Has Russia reacted?
Russia’s Defence Ministry said it shot down two Storm Shadow missiles. On Tuesday, the ministry said Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS in Russia’s Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine and Kursk.
The Russian president has warned Ukraine’s Western allies that if they allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with the missiles, it would mean NATO is “at war” with Russia.
When asked if the lifting of restrictions means NATO has entered the war, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera: “No, absolutely not. NATO is not party to this conflict.”
He added that the threat was a way for Putin to carry out “information warfare to deter escalation”.
Tensions have escalated this week as the 1,000th day of the war passed.
On Tuesday, Putin officially lowered the threshold of nuclear weapons use for Russia. These changes were first announced in September.
Regarding Tuesday’s ATACMS attack, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: “This is, of course, a signal that they want to escalate.”
Speaking at a news conference during the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Brazil, Lavrov accused Washington of helping Kyiv operate the missiles and said: “We will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia. And we will react accordingly.” He did not go further into detail.
Russia launches ICBM
On Thursday, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, hitting enterprises and critical infrastructure in Ukraine’s east-central city of Dnipro, according to the Kyiv air force. If confirmed, this attack is the first time an ICBM has been used in the war.
An ICBM is capable of delivering a nuclear attack.
Ukraine’s Ukrainska Pravda online newspaper quoted anonymous sources as saying the missile fired was the RS-26 Rubezh. The RS-26 has a range of 5,800km (3,604 miles), according to the Arms Control Association.
Russia has not commented on the attack.
Why are the UK and US helping Ukraine?
Giles, who is also the author of an upcoming book, Who Will Defend Europe?, said the UK and France have been “wanting to lift the restrictions on the use of the weapons but were held back by the US”.
He added that the White House has not provided a coherent explanation for why it is lifting the restrictions now, but there is speculation.
Biden has given Ukraine the green light two months before Republican President-elect Donald Trump is sworn into office. Trump has promised to end the war, which has raised concerns about whether the US will cut back its military support.
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