War in Ukraine: missiles, anti-personnel mines, atomic weapons… the inevitable escalation between Ukraine and Russia?

The war in Ukraine seems to have embarked on an escalation whose outcome is difficult to imagine, 1,000 days after the Russian invasion. For several weeks, in fact, the Ukrainians and Russians seem to be throwing all their strength into the battle to push their territorial gains to the maximum. A real race against time as winter approaches which could freeze the front line and especially in view of Donald Trump's return to the White House on January 20.

Re-elected by a wide margin as President of the United States on November 5, Donald Trump hopes, in fact, to begin his mandate with a diplomatic success as resounding as it is currently improbable: the end of the war in Ukraine. This perspective encourages Ukrainians and Russians to be in a position of strength for the day when peace negotiations begin.

Long-range missiles

On the Ukrainian side, we are preparing to face a cessation of American aid that Trump supporters have so often contested and obstructed in Congress in recent months. Joe Biden, still president for two months, is trying to pull the rug out from under his successor: several months after authorizing Ukraine to carry out artillery strikes in Russia to protect Kharkiv, he has finally given the green light , Sunday, so that Volodymyr Zelensky's troops can use American ATACMS missiles, with a range of 300 kilometers, to strike targets on Russian territory.

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Ukraine immediately used this possibility: on Tuesday morning, according to the Russian army, it targeted military installations in the Bryansk region, not far from the Ukrainian border. Five projectiles were destroyed.

The fact remains that the late use of these missiles, which constitute a tactical option, should not necessarily change the situation, because the Russian army has learned to protect its sites and is on the offensive in Kursk with the support of some 10,000 North Korean soldiers… The head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov however judged, on the sidelines of the G20 in Rio, that this sent “a signal” according to which Ukraine and the West “want climbing.”

Russian nuclear threat

And he invited Westerners to “read the entirety” of the new Russian nuclear doctrine, made official on Tuesday by Vladimir Putin, who has brandished the nuclear threat no less than 110 times since the start of the war. The new Russian doctrine in this area expands the possibility of resorting to atomic weapons in the event of a “massive” attack by a non-nuclear country but supported by a nuclear power. A clear reference to Ukraine and the United States.

Moscow, which is increasing strikes in particular against the Ukrainian capital kyiv and Ukraine's energy infrastructure, has promised an “appropriate” response after the attack on its soil. Washington, London and the European Union then denounced “irresponsible rhetoric” on the part of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Emmanuel Macron denounced an “escalatory” posture of Russia which he called “to reason”: “It has responsibilities as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council”.

For his part, Volodymyr Zelensky warned Tuesday against the risk of a defeat against Moscow in the event of an end to American aid, judging the “survival” of Ukraine at stake. “If they cut (the help), I think we will lose,” the Ukrainian leader said in an interview on Fox News, the conservatives' favorite American channel. “Of course, in any case, we will stay, we will fight. We have our production. But it is not enough to win. And I think it is not enough to survive,” added the president who immediately congratulated Donald Trump on his election, and sought to convince him to subscribe to his idea of ​​“peace through force”, that is to say who would not let Russia win.

Antipersonnel mines

If Donald Trump's entourage diverges on the options to favor to resolve the conflict, he denounced an “escalation” or even a risk of “world war three” after Joe Biden's decision to authorize Ukraine to use missiles ATACMS. Criticisms which do not seem to have disturbed Joe Biden who decided to provide Ukraine with “non-persistent antipersonnel mines” (equipped with a self-destruct or self-deactivation device) to strengthen its defenses against the invasion Russian, causing consternation among certain NGOs fighting against this type of weapon, the victims of which are on the rise around the world.

Today, I addressed the participants of an extraordinary session of the European Parliament marking the 1,000th day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Every “today” is the best moment to push Russia harder. It is clear that without certain key factors, Russia will lack… pic.twitter.com/etKlasOmtg

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Volodymyr Zelensky (@ZelenskyyUa)

With this American decision, we see that the race against time in the war in Ukraine continues, even intensifies and should undoubtedly continue until January 20 and the arrival of Donald Trump.

Afterwards, a new chapter will open, each party knows it. Facing the Ukrainian Parliament, Volodymyr Zelensky estimated that the outcome would come in 2025 and recognized that Ukraine might have to wait until after Putin to “restore” its territorial integrity. This is the first time that he has admitted that his country will “perhaps” have to accept, for a time, the loss of areas occupied by Russia, which represent 20% of Ukrainian territory.