Did Joe Biden give in too late?

THE WORLD THAT MOVES. After months of reluctance, the American president authorizes kyiv to fire ATACMS missiles at Russia.

This is a major change on a strategic level. We feel that time is running out before the handover. After saying that he will spend “every dollar at his disposal” to help Ukraine between now and his departure, Joe Biden has finally given in.

Authorizing kyiv to strike Russian territory with long-range American missiles was a long-standing request from Volodymir Zelensky and he now has the green light.

Joe Biden has so far refused to grant this request for fear of escalation of the conflict, but according to American officials, the deployment of 10,000 North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region was the last straw. This is what would have motivated this decision.

The aim is to dissuade Pyongyang from sending more while allowing Ukraine to keep this piece of Russian territory. And this seems tactically wise when we know that Donald Trump is not against an agreement that would allow Vladimir Putin to keep the conquered Ukrainian regions.

Authorization too late?

But can this green light from Biden help change the course of the war? A priori no, for two main reasons. First, Ukraine can only obtain a limited number of ATACMS missiles and above all this green light comes late, if not too late due to procrastination.

Stephen Biddle, professor at Columbia University, even adds another element. According to him, “the Russians have long placed their most critical assets beyond the reach of ATACMS” because they expected this restriction to be lifted.

ATACMS missiles can hit targets nearly 300 kilometers away, but note that kyiv has been able, in recent months, to penetrate deeper into Russian territory using locally manufactured drones.

However, this lifting of restrictions remains a strong signal sent to Vladimir Putin – that of a determined ally.

“The response will be inevitable and destructive”

The question now is how the Russian president will react.

Vladimir Putin has already warned on several occasions against such permission being given to kyiv. For him, it would mean that “NATO members are at war against his country”. A position reaffirmed last week by the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry:

“The response to the use of long-range Western systems on our territory will be inevitable and destructive.”

The verbal threat is serious, but defense experts say Moscow is currently too militarily weak to seek direct conflict with NATO or the United States.

Poland, although it borders Ukraine, does not seem worried. She even welcomes the measure: “President Biden responded with language that Vladimir Putin understands,” believes the head of Polish diplomacy.

So, could the green light given by the Biden administration push other allies to follow suit before Donald Trump takes office? In any case, in recent hours, European leaders have reiterated their support for Ukraine. Whether it's Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz or Ursula Von Der Leyen. The message is the same: we are united, we will not let you down.

A tightening of ranks which comes after the German Chancellor's phone call to Vladimir Putin on Friday had caused disruption. Volodymir Zelensky, furious, then accused him of having opened “Pandora's box”.