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Benoît Gaudibert. Ukraine, the dark scenario

Push your advantage on the ground and flaunt your power, with the aim of being able to negotiate from a position of strength. This is how we must interpret the massive attack launched this weekend by Russia in Ukraine, one of the most significant since the start of the conflict, which will enter its 1,000e day Tuesday. Putin's offensive comes at an opportune time, as Western chancelleries have been buzzing for several days with rumors about upcoming discussions to end the war. A perspective opened up by the election of Donald Trump, who clearly reshuffled the cards. Numerous signs support his desire to hasten the end of the fighting. The American president-elect is preparing “the capitulation of Ukraine”, even estimated François Hollande, as an informed observer. No one can claim to know the real intentions of the unpredictable Republican leader. His running mate JD Vance had, however, delivered some clues in September, by outlining his boss's plan to end the war in “24 hours”. This would involve freezing the current positions of the two belligerents by establishing a demilitarized zone on the current front line. This would de facto amount to ratifying Russian territory captures and imposing concessions on Ukraine, a compromise which would sound like a defeat for kyiv. This is going to be a tough pill to swallow for the heroic President Zelensky, who for the first time in a long time we felt shaken by the events. As winter looms and the Russians advance a little more militarily in the east every day, the morale of his fellow citizens is at its lowest. Unfortunately, it is difficult to see the Europeans, still incapable of speaking with one voice, opposing this scenario for long if it is ever confirmed. Zelensky would then find himself isolated in the face of the implacable will of the Putin-Trump duo.

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