can France win the standoff?

The threat of a new farmers' revolt is becoming clearer. The FNSEA is indeed calling for a major national mobilization on Monday, the opening day of the G20 in Brazil. Emmanuel Macron will attend before his tour of Latin America and he intends to once again mark his opposition to the free trade agreement with Mercosur. But does France really have the means to block it?

Find a blocking minority

It is in Brussels that everything will be played out and the game promises to be close. The European Commission is pushing for the treaty which it wants to sign quickly. It is mainly supported by Germany and Spain. Opposite, France is trying to find a blocking minority in the European Council, that is to say four countries representing at least 35% of the Union's population. However, for the moment, Paris only has two allies, Austria and Poland. Emmanuel Macron and Michel Barnier are therefore doing their utmost to convince their undecided partners. If they fail, to be applied, the agreement will then have to be ratified by the European Parliament, but also by all national parliaments.

Which should block in France since the vast majority of the political class is against the text. To circumvent a vote by the French Parliament, the European Commission could then adopt another strategy by cutting the treaty in two, so as to pass its most controversial provisions under its exclusive competence over trade policy. To adopt Mercosur, we would still need a vote in the European Parliament where it would have to be decided in a matter of fact.