Tropical Cyclone 19 formed in the Caribbean Wednesday afternoon and is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday.
According to analysis from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), models show that PTC 19, previously designated as Invest 99L on Tuesday, could continue to strengthen and become a hurricane over the next few hours.
For now, hurricane warning remains in effect for the northern coast of Honduras and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for northeastern Nicaragua.
It should be noted that Sara's intensity will depend not only on water temperature and wind shear, but also whether or not it passes over land before entering the Gulf of Mexico.
Possible trajectory of PTC 19
The NHC says Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 will continue to move westward. By the weekend, the system is expected to move slowly west-northwest over the coast of Honduras on Friday and off the coasts of Belize and Guatemala from Saturday to Sunday, and reach Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula early next week.
Next, computer forecast models indicate the system could get tougher by staying local and taking advantage of warm waters and low wind shear.
From there, an area of high pressure will form to the north of the system next week, and where she settles will ultimately determine the trajectory of the future Sara.
Conductive currents may push the system toward Central America or allow Sara to move northward and advance into the Gulf of Mexico, then sometime next week it could hit Florida.
Effects associated with PTC 19
Of very heavy rain are expected over the next 36 hours in Jamaica, heavy to torrential rain in Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua where flash floods and landslides will occur. Later in the weekend, significant precipitation will occur in Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico.
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