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- The National Hurricane Center says there is a high chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean.
- It’s likely this system will become the season’s 18th named storm, Sara.
- Interests from the western Caribbean to Florida should monitor the forecast for now.
The Atlantic hurricane season’s 18th named storm, Sara, is likely to form in the Caribbean and it might head toward the Gulf of Mexico next week, but the forecast features a high degree of uncertainty.
Latest status: The broad area of low pressure that will spur this tropical development is located in the Caribbean Sea. It is now being referred to as Invest 99L, a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development.
(MORE: What Is An Invest?)
The NHC has scheduled the first Hurricane Hunter flight mission into Invest 99L for Wednesday afternoon.
At any rate, this low will likely form into a tropical depression somewhere in the red-shaded area in the map below once it becomes better defined in the next day or two, according to the NHC.
Potential Development Area
(The possible area of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook is shown by the polygon, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An “X” indicates the location of the current disturbance.)
Future Strength, Track In Caribbean: Computer model forecast guidance indicates this system could become Tropical Storm Sara soon after first becoming a depression late this week. And with relatively low wind shear and record warm Caribbean water for mid-November, Sara could ramp up to a hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea.
Its future track is complicated and uncertain, and likely to change in the coming days, so check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates.
For now, we expect this system to remain in the western Caribbean region through at least Sunday or Monday as it moves slowly to the west in the direction of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Computer Model Forecast Tracks
(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as guidance for creating the projected path.)
Future Sara could even stall or drift east for a few days while near Central America and it might even move inland and spin down a bit. Either way, this slow crawl could produce prolific rainfall, with potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Future Sara’s Possible Gulf Scenario Next Week: Forecast models suggest a cold front moving across the United States could allow Sara to begin moving in a northerly direction toward the Yucatan Peninsula, southern Gulf or western Cuba by later Monday or Tuesday. The cold front could then accelerate future Sara toward the east, which might bring it across parts of Florida or Cuba around next Wednesday.
But there are many unknowns at this point when it comes to any impacts future Sara might bring to those areas.
Those factors include possible land interaction with Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as well as uncertainty surrounding atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.
Changes to the forecast are likely in the coming days, so interests in the western Caribbean and Florida should monitor this situation closely.
(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
Typical November Tropical Activity
Hurricane season winds down during November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see storms. This November has already produced Rafael.
In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every one to two years and one hurricane every two to three years.
More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America have taken hard hits from November hurricanes.
If a storm does develop in November, it’s usually in the western Caribbean Sea or either the southwestern or central Atlantic.
This is because environmental factors are better suited for development. Wind shear is normally pretty low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south and water temperatures are still fairly warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.
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