“Population growth declined in Morocco as the number of families increased, most of which were concentrated in major cities and cities.” These were the most striking conclusions of the results of the General Population and Housing Census 2024, which also revealed that “five regions house more than 70% of the population, and seven major cities attract about 40% of the urban population.”
Although Morocco’s population has doubled since the 1960s, population growth and demographic growth rates have continued to decline throughout this period, according to what the Planning Commission highlighted in a memorandum supported by data. The annual population growth rate also declined from 2.6% between 1960 and 1982 to 1.25% between 2004 and 2014, before falling to 0.85% between 2014 and 2024 (over the past 10 years).
Forward-looking data
Presenting “preliminary remarks” on the results of the 2024 General Population and Housing Census, Ibrahim Agdeem, honorary professor at Sidi Muhammad Ben Abdullah University in Fez, specializing in economic geography and spatial development, highlighted that “these results constitute a valuable reservoir of raw data for the researcher, the responsible administrator, and the interested actor.” And the citizen alike.”
Agdim went on to explain in an analytical comment to Hespress newspaper: “With the prospect of publishing the detailed results of the census, its importance can be confirmed for all Moroccans in self-knowledge, the requirements of dynamic evaluation, directing sectoral policies, and investment to achieve prosperity and a decent living for all Moroccans,” stressing that the results “revealed the magnitude and depth of the transformations that he has known and is aware of.” Moroccan society in recent years and what it requires of redirecting efforts to meet the needs of the population according to its demographic nature and formulating new and appropriate plans to anticipate Its future needs, especially in the short and medium term.”
Al-Jami himself raised “the close logical connection between demography and its influential factors in previous stages on the one hand, and demography and its potential effects in the future on the other hand,” adding that “the analysis of the numbered results of the census must be done by recalling what explains the national population dynamics in the past, especially the recent one, to understand the implications.” The result is the result of an interaction between multiple economic, social and cultural factors, with a forward-looking future perspective that allows the assessment of population outcomes and their social, economic and environmental repercussions.”
Reproductive behavior
Abdel Khaleq El Tohamy, an economist who previously worked at the National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics, read the summaries of Morocco’s demographic development, saying that “the rate of 0.85% (between 2014 and 2024) reflects the average annual increase in the population, which has actually witnessed a decline despite a numerical increase of about 3 million new people.” in the legal population of the Kingdom according to the government decree that approved the results of the 2024 census.”
Al-Tahami stated, in a statement to Hespress, that “the reasons explaining the dynamic population growth in Morocco depend on a number of internal factors related to the family and its composition, as well as its reproductive behavior,” stressing that the results of the last general census revealed “a clear effect of delaying the age of marriage for males as well as females.” both”.
The researcher specializing in issues of statistics and applied economics also confirmed that “the decline in the number of births per Moroccan woman is a clear indicator of the decline in the fertility index for a single family,” giving the example that “a number of families, especially with the economic and social effects of urbanization and the move to live in the cities during the 20 Last year, she chose to have one or two children, citing the increasing financial and educational burdens and the continuous increasing costs.”
“The rise in the age of education and the length of years of schooling” is another explanatory factor, according to what El-Tohamy said, noting that “detailed results and data on the situation of Moroccan families and the development of their standard of living will be more useful for understanding developments in the demographic dynamics of the country’s population.”
The research professor at the Faculty of Governance, Economic and Social Sciences (Mohamed VI Interdisciplinary University) highlighted that “all of this can be described as urgent and accelerating changes in the reproductive behavior of Moroccan families, which have begun to tend towards a high concentration in seven major metropolises, or for families previously residing in villages before The winds of urbanization blow upon it.”
Distinct population distribution
Among what distinguishes the preliminary results of the census, according to analytical reports provided by Professor Agdim to Hespress, is “the continued growth of population numbers, albeit at a different pace over time, and with a distinct distribution comparing cities and deserts, and confirmation of the positive mobility of the population, especially in the Moroccan Saharan regions, which today contain more than One million people (1,119,678) limited to the three regions of Laayoune-Sakia El-Hamra, Guelmim-Oued Noun, and Dakhla-Oued Eddahab.”
The specialist in the geography of regional development also pointed out “the tangible emergence of important poles with an important population concentration, as is the case in the Laayoune community, for example, which alone includes 262,791 people, and the Dakhla community, with a population of 165,463 people, which translates the rapid growth of these poles, and shows the positive impact.” Which was achieved in these regions thanks to public investment within the framework of the development model programs adopted in the southern regions of the Kingdom since 2016.”
The same statement stated that “the population of Morocco has tripled in 45 years, and in the last ten years there has been an absolute increase of 2,980,088 people, compared to the total recorded in 2014, that is, an average annual growth rate of 0.85% during this period, which is actually a low rate.” If compared to the rate of 1.25% recorded in the previous period between 2004 and 2014.”
The urban population has also increased at an annual growth rate of 1.24%. While the increase in population in the rural world continued to record positive growth, “but at a low pace; The annual increase rate was only 0.22%,” which Agdim explained by saying that there is “a connection to the difficult living and working conditions that constitute the prevailing factors of expulsion in most Moroccan rural areas, and on the other hand, it shows the effect of migration towards the cities, linked to the strong attraction of some age groups, which Characteristics of cities.
Future dimensions
Agdim brought up “some of the main future dimensions that must be taken into consideration when reading the census results, especially after completing the publication of their socio-economic details, and their optimal use to achieve general profit, by understanding the intersections and influential connections,” enumerating the most prominent of them in “the development of the human capital stock at the level of production and the labor force.” And the consumer bloc.”
He also called for “extrapolating the time extensions of population development and what might affect the sustainability of this human stock and the thresholds of change in the population growth curve and its characteristics in the coming years,” by bringing to mind “the regional distribution of the human mass, the components, constraints, and requirements of framing,” as well as the issues of “demography, human peculiarities, and issues of balance.” Between the sexes.”
The possible intersections are also represented in “planning the preparation of the national and regional territory in a way that allows the fulfillment of the aspirations of the population and its various needs for infrastructure, facilities and services, from a balanced human rights and development perspective,” while “redirecting future regional public investment in a way that requires a fair distribution of wealth and programming in budgets and measures.” Support, “anticipating the possible consequences of population movement, controlling migration through local development, enhancing territorial attractiveness and proximity services, and simplifying investment procedures.”
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