Harris fails because of Biden’s difficult legacy – Trump triumphs

After Joe Biden decided not to seek re-election in July, there was great euphoria in the Democratic ranks. Kamala Harris promised to fight Donald Trump with joy and optimism. Her husband Doug Emhoff described his wife as a “joyful warrior” at the party conference. But the majority of American voters feel very differently at the moment. According to the post-election survey on Tuesday, 29 percent are angry and 43 percent are dissatisfied.

This dissatisfaction quickly manifested itself in sobering results on election night. In the southern swing states of Georgia and North Carolina, Trump was already the winner on Wednesday night. He soon took over the leadership in the contested states in the northern industrial belt – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The so-called “blue wall” in the Rust Belt crumbled and then collapsed completely.

A “strong mandate” from the people

Even though the polls were close, Trump celebrated a clear victory. He will probably end up winning the two swing states in the west – Arizona and Nevada. On Wednesday, the Republican presidential candidate had 292 electoral votes, and he needed at least 270 to win. At the same time, it is clear that the Republicans will regain the majority in the Senate. The outcome in the House of Representatives is still open.

While Harris, in her disappointment, refrained from appearing in front of her supporters on election night, Trump was exuberant in Florida on Wednesday at half past two in the morning: “Look what happened. Isn’t that crazy?” he said to cheers from his supporters. America gave him a “strong mandate”. And he will lead his country into a “golden age”. Alluding to the assassination attempt on his life in July, Trump said: “A lot of people have told me that God kept me alive for a reason.” The reason is to save America and return it to its former greatness.

In fact, the reasons for Trump’s impressive comeback seem to be entirely earthly. Those who voted for him were primarily concerned about two things: the economic situation and immigration. These are the two issues that the Republican put at the center of his election campaign. And as post-election polls show, those are the two things a majority of Americans are currently most worried about.

Those who voted for Harris were primarily concerned about the stability of American democracy and abortion rights. But the vice president was ultimately unable to mobilize enough voters with these two issues. Not even the women were particularly enthusiastic. Harris won more female votes than Trump. But her lead of 10 percentage points among this group of voters was significantly smaller than Biden’s lead of 15 percentage points four years ago. Meanwhile, Trump increased his support among social groups that previously traditionally voted for Democrats: among young voters and among African-American and Hispanic men. Trump will therefore win the popular vote for the first time in this election.

The result of a mixed presidency

With the vote, the Democrats receive a painful receipt for Joe Biden’s mixed presidency. Inflation has cooled down again to a moderate 2.4 percent. But Americans pay about 20 percent more for groceries today than they did four years ago. In addition, rental prices and mortgage interest rates also rose sharply. Although rising wages are increasingly offsetting inflation, a majority of Americans still see themselves worse off than they were four years ago.

At the same time, the easing of asylum policies under the Biden-Harris administration led to record levels of immigration across the southern border with Mexico. The burden on individual municipalities was so great that even Democratic mayors and governors complained about politics in Washington. Biden acted too hesitantly. Only as the elections approached did he react in the first half of this year. With Mexico’s help and a stricter asylum policy through regulations, the influx of migrants fell by 60 percent.

In addition, there were foreign policy crises and conflicts in which Washington acted less successfully. With the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Biden’s poll numbers plummeted and never recovered. A few months later he was unable to prevent the Russian invasion of Ukraine. After Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Biden also pursued a helpless zigzag course in the Middle East. On the one hand, he supported Israel’s offensive in the Gaza Strip and, on the other hand, pushed for a ceasefire in view of the student protests at American universities. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continued to expand the war. Biden appeared powerless.

Biden also realized too late that his health would no longer allow him to continue in office. If he had renounced his bid for a second term in time, it would have been possible for the Democrats to nominate the best candidate in their ranks in open primaries. As it was, they had no choice but to rally behind Kamala Harris in desperation in July. Ultimately, this failed to win the trust of the Americans. On the one hand, Biden’s legacy proved too heavy. On the other hand, Harris lacked the charisma to win the hearts of voters.

America should think about itself first

It remains to be seen whether the USA now has a better commander-in-chief with Trump in the White House. His election program hardly promises any solutions to the most pressing problems. Trump promised workers more protectionism through even higher tariffs, and he excited billionaires with the prospect of tax cuts. He also wants to deport illegal immigrants en masse. American economists warn that these plans will fuel inflation and further widen the hole in the government’s coffers.

Trump has the idea of ​​commissioning Tesla founder Elon Musk to make the American state leaner. However, it is not civil servants’ salaries that are primarily responsible for the growing debts, but rather the state pension and health insurance systems. However, Trump has promised not to cut pensions or increase the retirement age.

Meanwhile, Democrats fear that Trump could undermine the separation of powers and the rule of law. In his speech after the election victory, Trump was conciliatory and did not threaten his political opponents with revenge. During the election campaign, however, he announced that he would take “very aggressive action” against “rogue bureaucrats”. Democrats worry that the new Republican president could politicize the administration by replacing tens of thousands of officials with loyal aides. This would allow Trump to use bureaucracy to control his critics. According to his former chief of staff John Kelly, Trump wanted to abuse the tax authorities in his first term in office to subject undesirable people to tax audits.

The Democrats also see the independence of the judiciary at risk. They expect Trump to appoint a fiercely loyal attorney general as a first step in ousting special counsel Jack Smith. He had brought two charges against him for embezzling secret service documents and his “attempted coup” against the 2020 election results.

In terms of foreign policy, Trump could open up new rifts between the Western allies at a time when the free world should actually be showing unity against the authoritarian axis between Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran. In his victory speech, Trump emphasized that under him the United States would first think about itself and not about its role as a world policeman. “America first” applies, at least for a certain time. The New York Times was pessimistic on Wednesday: “Donald Trump’s return to power ushers in an era of uncertainty.”