polls tighter than ever complicate predictions

Who will the votes of Americans go to, in the secrecy of the 2024 presidential election ballot boxes? On the day of the election itself, Tuesday November 5, polling institutes are hard-pressed to predict a winner. The latest national estimate gives 49% voting intentions for Kamala Harris, compared to 48% for Donald Trump.

In the seven key states, the gap is just as small, at 3%, a margin too small to say definitively. Above all, polling institutes fear underestimating the Trumpist vote. This is the mistake they made in 2016: they did not see Hillary Clinton's defeat coming by forgetting Donald Trump voters. This year, they claim to have taken the lead. “The risk today in my opinion is that we have corrected too much and that we underestimate the vote for Kamala Harris”explains Chris Jackson, co-director of the IPSOS institute.

Watch the full report in the video above