The vote is as undecided as it is decisive. The presidential election organized this Tuesday, November 5 in the United States must deliver its verdict during the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, Paris time. What result can we expect? And what would be the consequences of each of them? While it is obviously difficult to predict with precision, West France has nevertheless drawn up a list of five potential scenarios, and attempts to identify the chances of them actually happening.
1. No consolidated result on election night
Firstly, it is very likely that the result of the election will not be known immediately, but a few days later. “Historically, anything is possible”recalls Soufian Alsabbagh, specialist in geopolitics at Baruch College in New York. Certainly, “recently, we almost always knew the name of the winner on election night,” notes the researcher. But, for example, this was not the case in 2000 or in 2020.
Four years ago, when the election took place on November 3, we had to wait for the results of the state of Pennsylvania, validated on the 7th, to be certain that Joe Biden would exceed the threshold of 270 electoral votes necessary. to be elected.
Why such a delay? Because when the votes are close, each vote and each key state (the famous swing states ) account. However, they take more or less time to count the votes. “Pennsylvania is very slow, Wisconsin is very rural so the results come back very slowly, and that’s also the case in Nevada and Arizona,” list Soufian Alsabbagh.
If a candidate does not need the electors of these states to reach the necessary 270 votes, the results can be known early. But if the election is played in one or more of these lagging states, the results may be delayed, particularly if no candidate quickly takes the lead in the count. A scenario that could very well happen this Tuesday.
2. A narrow victory for Kamala Harris, which would potentially provoke a violent protest
Democrat Kamala Harris maintains a slim lead in terms of the number of voters' votes (what experts call “the popular vote”) and remains well positioned in many swing states (notably Michigan, Wisconsin, even Georgia). She therefore has enough cards in her deck to imagine becoming the next president of the United States. But observers agree that if Kamala Harris wins, which is already far from certain, it will probably only be by a narrow head.
Such a result would have a first consequence: the contestation of the results by the Republicans. “There is a plan that is ready, he has lawyers on the spot”, reports Soufian Alsabbagh. As the researcher points out, the closer the result, the more important and long these disputes will take to resolve.
In the worst case, legal challenges could last several weeks. Furthermore, in a very polarized and increasingly tense political climate, these challenges to the result could lead to more or less violent demonstrations. The invasion of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 serves as a precedent, even a warning.
Read also: American presidential election: the post-election battle has already begun
Furthermore, this narrow victory in terms of electoral votes would probably result in Congress in what the Americans call a « divided government ». In other words: cohabitation. In parallel with the presidential election, Americans elect the members of the House of Representatives and a third of the senators. However, these ballots have different methods, and can therefore lead to divergent results.
For the presidential election, the candidate who comes first in a state wins all of its major voters. But, for their part, representatives are elected in local districts. So even if he wins all the electors in a state, a presidential candidate can see certain districts elect representatives of the other political color. And if this pattern is repeated too often, he could therefore see the political balance being reversed in the House of Representatives
3. A narrow victory for Donald Trump, which the Democrats would be more likely to recognize
“Can Trump win down to the wire, in a scenario similar to 2016? Yes of course “summarizes Soufian Alsabbagh. Although he should indeed garner fewer votes than his competitor at the national level, Donald Trump could actually rely on small surges in his favor in a few key states to win over their electorates and thus surpass the 270 mark. In 2016 , he only gathered 46% of the votes (compared to 48% for Hillary Clinton) but was able to count on 304 electors.
It is often thanks to these few hundred votes in key states that Republicans can put one of their own in the presidency. “Historically, Republicans are in the minority” in the United States, recalls Soufian Alsabbagh. “They have not won more than 50% of the presidential vote since 1988, except for George Bush in 2004, who went just above, with 50.7%. ».
In such a case, “the Democrats have proven, unlike the Republicans, that they accept the results of the elections”notes Soufian Alsabbagh. In certain disputed cases, appeals could well be filed locally. But, if the national results are clear, the Democratic candidate should therefore recognize her defeat. “In 2016, Hillary Clinton came in the early morning of November 9, 2016 to say: ‘Donald Trump won’,” remembers Soufian Alsabbagh.
4. A “large” victory for one of the two candidates, possible but less relevant
Most observers agree that the scenario of a blue or red tidal wave is less likely than that of an edge-to-edge duel.
Nevertheless, “if there is a big victory, it is much more likely on Kamala Harris’s side”explains Soufian Alsabbagh, who relies in particular on the fact that the Democrat is announced in the lead in the popular vote (and that these additional votes constitute so many reserves to possibly tip a swing state).
Likewise, if they come to pass, these victories considered “large” would be much less so than those of the past. “In any case, it will not be a victory with 400 voters, like Bush Sr. or Reagannote Soufian Alsabbagh. Donald Trump, if he wins everything, has 312 electors. This is a clear, indisputable figure and more than that of 2016 (304). But it's not a landslide victory. For her part, Kamala Harris can win up to 319 voters. It would be a very clear victory, but in 2008, Obama obtained 365 electoral votes. And in 2012, he was re-elected with 332 voters. »
5. Perfect equality, and the ball in the representatives’ court
The chances of this scenario happening are slim. Nevertheless, they exist. If, at the end of the electoral process, the two candidates were to bring together 269 electors each, the tenant of the White House would then be designated by the House of Representatives (the American equivalent of our National Assembly), whose composition is – even renewed this November 5.
In this scenario, called « contingent election »the 435 members of the House of Representatives form 50 delegations, corresponding to each American state. These state delegations then decide for one or the other of the candidates. A majority of states (26) is needed to win.
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