Cis a paradox of the American indirect system. A particularly indecisive election like that of this Tuesday, November 5 between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris does not necessarily mean that the vote will be extremely close in the electoral college.
With seven states in which the two candidates are neck and neck in the polls, and margins of error around 3%, everything could swing significantly in one direction or the other. In 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump did significantly better than expected. But in 2022, it was the Democrats who had been underestimated in Congress. Here are the three possible scenarios Tuesday evening.
Kamala Harris will clearly win… if the polls are wrong like in 2022
During the 2022 midterms, polls announced a “Maga” red wave in Congress. In the end, we saw a wave in the House, with a very small Republican majority, and the Democrats strengthened their control of the Senate by one seat.
On average, polls underestimated Democratic candidates by 4 points in the tightest states. If it happens again, Kamala Harris would win all seven swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada), for a final score of 319 to 219 in the electoral college. And even more in the event of victory in Iowa, where a very respected poll for the Des Moines Register gives him 3 points in advance.
Donald Trump will triumph… if the polls are wrong like in 2020
Four years ago, the institutes overestimated Biden by an average of 3.5 points in the swing stateswith failures of up to more than 6 points in Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.
ALSO READ American elections: suspense in the House, Republican favorites in the SenateWith a similar gap, we would obtain an opposite scenario to the first: Donald Trump would achieve a full success in the 7 swing states and would win 312 to 226 in the electoral college. In the event of a red wave, other blue states like Minnesota and New Hampshire would be in danger, and perhaps even New Mexico if Trump gains traction among Latinos.
It will be very close… if the polls are correct
To Discover
Kangaroo of the day
Answer
Monday evening, the average of models from RealClearPolling, Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a lead in Arizona (2.4 points), Georgia (1.3 points) and North Carolina (1.1 points). Kamala Harris is in the lead, but with tighter margins, in Michigan (0.9 points) and Wisconsin (0.8 points), with an almost perfect tie between the two candidates in Nevada and Pennsylvania. .
Everything would ultimately depend on « keystone state »the “keystone” state which has never lived up to its nickname so well and would tip the balance to one side or the other. The equation remains the same from the start: if Harris wins Pennsylvania (along with Michigan and Wisconsin), she would win the electoral college, potentially by the smallest of margins: 270 to 268. In the opposite scenario, Donald Trump would win 281 to 257. This is why Democrats and Republicans have spent more than a billion dollars in Pennsylvania: it is the kingmaker state, which could well open the doors of the White House to winner.
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