Harris’s Most Likely Path to Victory According to Pollsters, Strategists

When Vice President Kamala Harris received the Democratic Party’s nomination after President Joe Biden suddenly dropped out of the race in July, she soon opened up a gap over her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the national polls.

That gap, however, which according to 538’s polling tracker peaked at an average of 3.7 points in August, has since narrowed down to just 1.2—and in battleground states, there is nothing to split Harris and Trump.

Harris will face off against Trump on Tuesday, November 5. More than half of registered voters—54 percent—plan to cast their ballot before election day, according to a Gallup poll in October.

The seven battleground states in the 2024 presidential election are Pennsylvania (19 votes in the Electoral College), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6).

The vice president has put abortion rights, the cost of living, the housing shortage, and Trump’s character, among other issues, at the forefront of her campaign alongside Democratic running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

So what is the likeliest path to 270—the threshold for victory in the Electoral College—for Trump? Newsweek asked pollsters and strategists for their takes. Here’s what they said.

Nate Lerner, Principal, Build the Wave LLC

Kamala’s best path to victory is the blue wall, if she wins PA, she’ll almost certainly win MI and WI as well, which then gives her enough electoral votes.

Josh Clinton, Co-Director of the Vanderbilt Poll

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Harris. She needs those.

Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US Public Affairs, Ipsos

Kamala Harris is attempting to rebuild Biden’s winning coalition of voters from 2020. This has been complicated by high costs of livings dampening enthusiasm and quite likely some latent sexism in parts of that coalition. However she has an opportunity to win older voters – who make up most of the electorate – for the Democrats for the first time in decades. If she is able to win voters 65+, she likely wins the election.

Matt McDermott, Senior Vice President, Whitman Insight Strategies

If you look at the seven battleground states, I think she’s probably best positioned, based on both public and internal polling, in Michigan and Pennsylvania. If you take those two states, you get close enough for you to need one more.

What I think is really interesting about this cycle is that while there are seven battleground states, there is some differential between them for Harris and Trump. If she’s able to win on Tuesday in Michigan and Pennsylvania, it then becomes a question of the third stage. She needs Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia.

For Trump, what’s challenging for him is he needs to win all of those states if she is able to lock down Michigan and potentially Pennsylvania. So I think the easiest and most obvious path for Harris has been Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The benefit to her is there are other paths there if she loses Wisconsin. She is potentially able to win North Carolina or Georgia or Arizona, whereas Trump needs to win every single one of them to have a chance of getting past 270.

John Zogby, Senior Partner, John Zogby Strategies

The battleground states are so tight so there is less the need for Harris to win the entire Blue Wall because she is very competitive in the Southern Rim states.

But she really needs Michigan and Pennsylvania because they have the most electoral votes and boost her chances. Add Wisconsin and she is at 268 and is expected to get the district in Nebraska. Now she is tied.

David Paleologos, Director, Suffolk University Political Research Center

Pennsylvania.

Charles Franklin, Director, Marquette Law School Poll

For Harris it is winning WI, MI and PA. That would give her 270 electoral votes (assuming she wins the Omaha NE congressional district, where she seems to be leading.)

NV would add to her electoral vote but can’t put her over if she loses one of the Great Lakes states A long shot would be for her to pick up NC.

It is also possible we see all the dominos fall in one direction, even if by tiny margins, in which case the electoral vote may not be the nailbiter it was in 2020. But which direction?

Dr. Richard Groper, Department of Political Science, California State University

For Kamala, the surest way to victory is the same blue wall (MI, WI, PA) that Biden won in 2020 and the one Nebraska Electoral College vote that is likely to go Dem.

However, since the polling says she is literally tied in each battleground state, she can lose one of the battleground states and replace it with any combination of the rest of the states (AZ, NV, GA, NC) as long as the Electoral College votes are made up from losing one of the blue wall states.