A few hours before the American election, Reed Brody, former deputy of the State of New York and resident of Aude in Montolieu, analyzes an indecisive campaign during which the two candidates, Kamala Harris for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans, are neck and neck in the polls.
As the American election approaches on November 5, all scenarios are possible. Even that of a perfect equality between the Democrat Kamala Harris and the Republican Donald Trump. The improbable can become probable as the suspense remains. The former deputy of the State of New York, Reed Brody, who lives in Aude in Montolieu but who votes in one of the seven key states, Pennsylvania, stands with The Independent “the most indecisive electoral campaign” of his country with key states that can fall into one camp or the other.
How did this campaign go? What state of mind are Americans in a few hours before the vote?
This is probably the most intense campaign we have experienced in a very long time. There is very strong polarization in the country, we have never seen so much money spent on an election in the United States. In the last three months, a billion and a half dollars have been injected. If you are lucky enough, or unlucky enough, to live in a key state, you only see the election campaign on commercials that are only for the two candidates. If you are far from one of these pivotal states, the tension is not the same, people mobilize and donate money. In my case, I have the privilege of voting in Pennsylvania so we are very involved in the campaign. If you don't live in one of these key states, you feel like you're not participating.
What are the issues in these key states?
There are seven key states which have very different characteristics. Three in the northeast: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin; two southern states: North Carolina and Georgia; and two from the west: Arizona and Nevada. The demographics are not the same. If Kamala Harris wins all three in the Northeast, she wins the election by a two-vote margin. These are states that have been hit hard by deindustrialization, many jobs have been lost in exchange for free trade agreements. There are hardworking voters who think that the Democrats are no longer going to defend them, they have switched to the camp of Donald Trump. The latter poses as the savior of this working class. The situation is not really different from that of the Yellow Vests in France. In the United States, the fault is educational level. Here, the more diplomas you have, the more likely you are to vote for the Democratic Party.
Why has Kamala Harris been overtaken, according to the polls, by Donald Trump in recent weeks?
I think it was carried by a wave of enthusiasm. Millions of people didn't want Joe Biden to run. When the announcement came, it was a relief. Many of us thought that Kamala Harris was not the right candidate, but with the little time left, and the support of Joe Biden in the 48 hours following her withdrawal, she won the nomination and prevented other emerging candidates. During this period, we forgot the criticisms of Kamala Harris: her lack of authenticity, the fact that we did not have the impression of really knowing her and that she was not marked by real convictions. But for one to two months, she rode this wave.
Political scientists call it a “sugar high” as if you eat something with a lot of sugar, you get very excited but then it goes down because behind it there is no real nutrition inside. The issue after Biden's withdrawal was to make it known who Kamala Harris is. Everyone in the United States knows Donald Trump, we like him or we don't like him but we know who he is. Americans don't know who Kamala Harris is.
Could Donald Trump not recognize his defeat and repeat the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 with his supporters?
That's for sure. In 2020 he refused to acknowledge his defeat, there was no evidence of significant fraud and yet he did everything to overturn the results. Everything indicates that he will do the same thing. Many Americans are afraid he will win, but others are also afraid he will lose. This time around, they are much better prepared to create mayhem. But the Republicans also have the disadvantage of not being in power, they do not have the same levers. However, they had 4 years to prepare their protest, they took advantage of these years to put their support at all levels. In 2020, there was this first attempt to distort the counts, to not accept defeat.
If Donald Trump failed to overturn the previous elections it is because enough election administration officials were loyal. The Georgia Secretary of State who was called by Trump to find him 12,000 votes missing was a Republican, he refused. He's still there, but many people have been replaced in key positions, and they could find those 12,000 votes if they miss Donald Trump on November 5…
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