Frantic campaigning by Trump amid Iowa poll shock – US election live updates | US news

Europe will need to rethink its support of Ukraine if Donald Trump is elected, the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán said on Sunday, as the continent “will not be able to bear the burdens of the war alone”.

Orban opposes military aid to Ukraine and has made clear he thinks Trump shares his views and would negotiate a peace settlement for Ukraine.

The Trump ally said: “We (in Europe) need to realize that if there will be a pro-peace president in America, which I not only believe in but I also read the numbers that way, … if what we expect happens and America becomes pro-peace, then Europe cannot remain pro-war,” Orban said.

“Europe cannot bear the burden of [the war] alone, and if Americans switch to peace, then we also need to adapt,” Orban said.

Europe is jittery about how the outcome of the US election will affect the war in Ukraine and the continent’s security.

Donald Trump’s campaign has hit out at a surprise poll which showed Kamala Harris three points ahead in Iowa, a state that was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans.

The Trump campaign released a memo from its chief pollster and its chief data consultant calling the Des Moines Register poll “a clear outlier,” and saying that an Emerson College poll – also released Saturday – more closely reflected the state of the Iowa electorate.

The Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of a similar number of likely voters on November 1-2 had a starkly different result, with Trump leading Harris by 10 points. This poll also has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error.

The Emerson College survey had Trump with strong leads over Harris among men and independents, while Harris was performing well with those under the age of 30.

Donald Trump and his many campaign surrogates have been engaged in a strategy of publicly raising expectations among their followers which may create a well-spring of discontent should Kamala Harris win, especially if her victory is narrow or propelled over the line by a late-breaking wave of Democratic ballots.

“If we could bring God down from heaven and he’d be the vote counter, we’d win this, we’d win California, we’d win a lot of states,” Trump said last week in a typical piece of bombast about his prospects.

But internal sources tell the Guardian they are universally jittery about the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, through which most of Trump’s paths to 270 electoral college votes run. Internal polls show Trump ahead but some of those numbers have been so rosy in recent weeks that aides have grown distrustful about their accuracy.

The Trump campaign has also been nervous about North Carolina – a state they really have to hold this year – evidenced by the multiple trips Trump is making to the state in the final weekend. Trump had two rallies in North Carolina yesterday, and will be there again today and tomorrow.

Read the full piece here

In the campaign’s final days, Kamala Harris has sought to convince voters that she will bring down the cost of living, Reuters reports. It a top concern after several years of inflation.

She has also portrayed Donald Trump as dangerous and erratic and urged Americans to move on from Trump’s divisive approach to politics.

We have an opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of Donald Trump trying to keep us divided and afraid of each other. We’re done with that,” she said in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Saturday.

Trump has argued that Harris, as the sitting vice president, should be held responsible for the rising prices and high levels of immigration of the past several years, which he has portrayed as an existential threat to the country.

The only free aid they are going to get is a free ride back home,” he said at a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, on Saturday.

Good morning and welcome to our coverage of the 2024 US presidential election as we move into the final hours before polls open on Tuesday.

It’s set to be a busy day for Donald Trump with appearances in three swing states and it comes amid a surprise setback in Iowa with a poll showing him trailing Kamala Harris in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans.

The Republican nominee will kick off this morning with a rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, followed by an afternoon event in Kinston, North Carolina, and rounding the day off in Macon, Georgia.

Harris, meanwhile, will head to Michigan later today where the Democratic hopeful is due to speak at a campaign rally at Michigan State University in East Lansing.

Last night, she broke from the campaign trail to embrace her reputation as a “joyful warrior” with a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live. Harris portrayed herself, appearing in a mirror opposite the actor Maya Rudolph, who first played her on the show in 2019 and has reprised the role this season.

If you missed it, you can read David Smith’s fun report here:

In other developments:

• A Georgia judge rejected a Republican lawsuit trying to block counties from opening election offices on Saturday and Sunday to let voters hand in their mail ballots in person. The lawsuit only targeted Fulton county, a Democratic stronghold. Trump falsely blamed Fulton county workers for his loss of the 2020 election in Georgia.

• Americans took to the streets in cities across the country for a day of women’s marches. Marches were planned in all 50 states for the eighth annual gathering, which began the day after Trump was inaugurated in 2017.

• Vaccine skeptic Robert F Kennedy Jr could assume some control over US health and food safety in a second Trump administration, according to reports on Saturday. Kennedy said in a social media post that he would remove fluoride from all public water.