Trump or Harris – the USA is facing the breaking point

Die Nervosität ist groß. Dass Trump zum Äußersten bereit ist, ist hier allen bewusst. Für den verurteilten Straftäter steht womöglich seine persönliche Freiheit auf dem Spiel. Sollte er verlieren, müsste er sich mehreren Strafverfahren stellen, die er als Präsident zumindest zum Teil abwehren könnte. Die Nachfrage nach Notfallübungen für Kongressmitarbeiter ist in den vergangenen Monaten gestiegen. Was tun, wenn ein Gefährder ins Gebäude eindringt? Wo Schutz suchen? Solche Fragen schienen bis zum 6. Januar 2021 abstrakt. Doch die Bilder von Angreifern, die Beamte der Kapitolspolizei attackierten, Fenster einschlugen und durch die Gänge des Kongresses zogen, sind den Amerikanern seither unauslöschlich im Gedächtnis.

Donald Trump war nach seinem Versuch, den friedlichen Machtwechsel vor vier Jahren zu verhindern, von vielen schon als geächteter Aufrührer abgeschrieben worden. Doch er überrollte die Republikaner im Winter in den Vorwahlen und ließ sich abermals auf den Schild heben. Im Sommer dann überraschten die Demokraten mit ihrem späten Wechsel von Joe Biden zu Kamala Harris. Nun ist das Rennen zwischen den beiden Kandidaten so knapp, dass kein seriöser Beobachter eine Prognose wagen kann.

Trump lässt in dieser angespannten Stimmung bewusst Raum für Eskalation. Während seines Auftritts im Madison Square Garden in New York wiederholte er jüngst seine Warnung vor einem „inneren Feind“, der nach der Wahl Chaos stiften könne. Man stehe einer „bösartigen, linke Maschinerie“ gegenüber, die besiegt werden müsse. Wie vor vier Jahren behauptet er, die Stimmen für einen Sieg schon beisammenzu­haben – jetzt gelte es nur, sicherzustellen, dass „die andere Seite“ nicht be­trüge.

At a time of historic polarization, one spark could be enough to ignite nationwide unrest. In 2020, it took four days for Biden’s victory to be officially announced after the election. Since then, many states have upgraded to count postal votes more quickly. But it would be easy for Trump to use a late result to further lie about election fraud or prematurely claim victory. He has been casting doubts about the integrity of the electoral process for months. Even Harris recently expressed the expectation that Trump would declare himself the winner on election night, regardless of the result.

How quickly fake news can become a real threat was recently demonstrated in the areas devastated by Hurricane Helene. After Trump repeatedly claimed that the civil protection agency was abandoning Americans in need of help and instead giving money to migrants, aid workers were threatened by armed people. A similar dynamic could develop if Trump speaks again of a “stolen election” after November 5th. Two election mailboxes recently burned in the northwest of the United States; the FBI is investigating.

More likely than riots in Democratic-leaning Washington are escalations at the grassroots level: attacks on polling stations, disruption of vote counting, and possibly violent demonstrations. There is good reason why many states and counties have increased Election Day security measures in recent months. Election workers were trained in de-escalation and polling stations were equipped with panic buttons and bulletproof glass. Political violence is now considered so likely that it is becoming more difficult to find enough volunteers.

Precisely because the balance of power in Washington is different than it was four years ago, Trump is relying on building pressure from below. This time he is prepared: what were then improvised attempts to overturn the election results are now sophisticated strategies. The Republicans have mobilized a loyal army of their own election observers and placed loyal officials in the particularly contested states. Both Trump and Harris are prepared for lengthy legal battles after the election. In 2020, Republicans failed to file more than sixty lawsuits in multiple states to challenge the election results – a failure they want to avoid this time.

It is possible that Trump will again try to set up “alternative” electors in several states to ensure his victory there, contrary to the actual vote – a plan for which he was impeached in Georgia. But 2024 is not 2020. Trump’s scope to torpedo the election result has become narrower and would require even more radical means. Biden, who as president controls the military and has oversight of the Justice Department, is a strong opponent. In addition, a change in the law in 2022 will make it more difficult for members of Congress to challenge the election results. To actually block a potential Harris victory, Trump would likely need a majority in both chambers and a significant number of Republican representatives and senators to support him.

All of these are the scenarios in the event that the election result remains unclear for a long time. But it is also conceivable that Trump will simply win on November 5th, perhaps even quickly and clearly. If he is clearly ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan on election night, the election would be as good as decided. No allegations of election fraud are expected from Harris. Biden also recently said that he doesn’t doubt that the election will be fair – he just isn’t sure whether it will be peaceful.

One thing is certain: Trump would then be president of a deeply divided country. The rifts in American society have long extended far beyond specific political questions. Republicans and Democrats each see themselves as a bulwark against the perceived evil of the other side. Trump’s divisive rhetoric gives no hope that anything will change soon.

To avoid the chaos of his first term, conservative think tanks have mapped out a strategy for a second term as part of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. A central goal is the fight against the “deep state” in Washington: the federal administration should be reduced in size and filled with Trump loyalists. They also plan to limit the independence of the Justice Department and the FBI and reform education to promote socially conservative rather than woke values.

Trump firmly rejected collaboration with “Project 2025” after Harris made it the focus of her election campaign with urgent warnings. But a connection cannot be denied. More than half of the authors worked in his government or his campaign team. The Heritage Foundation is close to him anyway.

Much of the content is consistent with Trump promising Americans “retribution” if he becomes president a second time. He wants to prosecute critics and revoke the broadcasting licenses of undesirable media. He wants to take action against migrants with the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” America’s allies would have to prepare themselves to find themselves internationally without Washington’s backing. This particularly applies to aid to Ukraine, which Trump has criticized heavily on several occasions. With a view to NATO, his advisory circle is considering a fundamental reorientation.

Of course, it is also possible that the polling institutes are underestimating Harris and that she is not only defending the “blue wall”, the contested states in the rust belt, but is also ahead in Georgia or Arizona. Even in this scenario, it is unlikely that Trump will admit defeat on November 5th, call Harris and congratulate her on her election victory.

But if the Democrat is clearly ahead, some Republicans may not feel like repeating the upset of four years ago – Lindsey Graham and Mike Johnson, for example. Graham, the senator from South Carolina who is friends with Trump, said at the time, after the rebellion in the Capitol failed and Congress continued its session late at night, deliberately ambiguous: For him it had been a crazy ride with Trump. But he’s no longer taking part. Even Johnson, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, despite his closeness to Trump, has always acted in a state-supporting manner when in doubt – be it with the federal budget or with aid to Ukraine.

One thing would be clear if Trump were to lose: it would be his last attempt to get back into the White House. He would be 82 years old in 2028 – and he has ruled out running again then. After Trump’s election victory in 2016, the Republicans lost four times under his aegis: in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. Trumpism would not have gone away. But the party would have to look for a new leader. There will certainly not be a return to the traditional “Grand Old Party”, which was socially conservative, free trader and internationalist.

Whether an election loser named JD Vance would then inherit Trump’s movement and become the front man of a more intelligent and civil Trumpism must also be doubted. More likely would be diadochi fights within the party. Trump’s sons Don Jr. and Eric have recently played a larger role in their father’s election campaign. They too could file claims. Then there are those who want to move the party at least a little back to the center. Nobody knows how such a directional battle would end.

In this scenario – less likely according to recent surveys – the United States would have its first female president. To a large extent, it is likely to rely on continuity. It wouldn’t be easy for the Democrat. Internal polarization will not disappear and the world situation would remain as dangerous as before. Nevertheless, democracy in America and with it the liberal West would have survived its greatest internal challenge since the Second World War.