Hello everyone, we meet today for the PMU prediction of the day with a loser and a solid basis for your bets in a reduced field. It is the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe which will support the Quinté stakes on this Sunday, October 6, 2024. It is a flat race which will take place on the ParisLongchamp racecourse (Meeting n°1 – Race n°5). This superb Group I level race, with 5 million euros in allocations, brought together 16 starters who will compete at 4:20 p.m. on the rope course to the right of the 2,400 meters of the grass track (soft ground, penetrometer measured at 3.7). Note that the PMU is putting a piggy bank of 3 million euros into play for this Sunday quinté+. The bettors who have found the first five numbers in the exact order of arrival of this race will therefore share this jackpot.
The prediction’s favorite
At the top of his form, Fantastic Moon (3) seems entirely capable of taking an active part in the arrival of this Tiercé Quarté Quinté+. This horse trained by Sarah Steinberg has, in fact, just proven its physical condition by winning the Baden-Baden Grand Prix in Germany. That day, he swept away the opposition in the straight after bringing up the rear for a long time. Boasting a good rope number this Sunday (stall no. 2) and associated with Rene Piechulek, already winner of this Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2021 with Torquator Tasso, he could cross the post in the lead. It will therefore be appropriate to follow his performance with a certain interest.
The solid Quinté base
Having just proven his aptitude for the course, Bluestocking (7) seems to constitute a solid base among all the starters of this Quinté+. This resident of Ralph Beckett’s stable has just won the Prix Vermeille, a race contested on the track that interests us. Previously, she had achieved good results in the United Kingdom. Very well placed in the stalls this Sunday, she should logically succeed in securing one of the first five places at the finish of this trifecta. Punters who like to play in a small field will therefore be able to rely on his candidacy without taking too many risks.
The best PMU loser of the day
Narrowly beaten by Bluestocking in the last place, Adventure (16) seems to be the right choice for this Quinté. This representative of the Wertheimer brothers has just finished 3/4 lengths behind the British competitor. Judged on this, it could show a high rating.
The underdog poker move of the day
Al Riffa (4) has just won the Berlin Grand Prix over 2,400 meters. Previously, this protégé of Joseph Patrick O’Brien had been beaten by City of Troy at Sandown Park. However, the latter had just won the Epsom Derby and then won the Juddmonte International Stakes at York. The line is therefore very favorable and it gives it a chance to play spoilsport when this quinté arrives. Tourists looking for a speculative outsider or a poker move may therefore be interested in his candidacy.
The 4 essential horses for prognosis
Shin Emperor (10) will represent the interests of Japan, a country which is slow to find recognition in this legendary event after several disappointments. Author of a good end to the race at the last place, he beat Los Angeles that day. If his jockey does not fish due to lack of experience, he could confuse the issue.
Another Wertheimer representative and essential Fabre service, Sauce (13) has never experienced defeat when running 2,400 meters. Better to be wary of it.
Los Angeles (14) et Sunway (11) had matched in the Irish derby, a race contested over 2,400 at the Curragh. The distance to be covered this Sunday will correspond perfectly to their skills and they could integrate the winning combination if their numbers in the stalls do not play tricks on them.
Last minute in case of non-starter
Vega’s look (9) has a chance on paper if we rely on his victory in the Prix du Jockey-Club but he has just experienced his first defeat on the occasion of his debut over the distance that interests us in the Prix Niel. Under these conditions, whether or not to retain him in this prediction will mainly be a matter of impression. However, don’t hesitate to slip it on your game ticket as an additional horse.
The Quinté prediction of the day (*)
| 4 bases for your reduced field bets |
|---|
| Fantastic Moon (3) |
| Bluestocking (7) |
| Adventure (16) |
| Al Riffa (4) |
| 4 essential horses to combine |
|---|
| Shin Emperor (10) |
| Sauce (13) |
| Los Angeles (14) |
| Sunway (11) |
The 16 starters of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
| 1 | Zarakem | C. Demuro | J. Reynier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beech Zark | W. Buick | A. Fouassier |
| 3 | Fantastic Moon | R. Piechulek | S. Steinberg |
| 4 | At Riffa | Y. Take | J-P. O’Brien |
| 5 | Sevenna’s Knight | M. Barzalona | A. Fabre |
| 6 | Continuous | C. Soumillon | A-P. O’Brien |
| 7 | Bluestocking | R. Ryan | R. Beckett |
| 8 | Mqse de Sévigné | A. Pouchin | A. Fabre |
| 9 | Vega’s look | R. Thomas | C&Y. Lerner |
| 10 | Shin Emperor | R. Sakai | Y. Yahagi |
| 11 | Sunway | O. Murphy | D. Carpenter |
| 12 | Delius | I. Mendizabal | JC. Red mullet |
| 13 | Sauce | M. Guyon | A. Fabre |
| 14 | Los Angeles | R. Moore | A-P. O’Brien |
| 15 | Survival | T. Marquand | N. Clement |
| 16 | Adventure | S. Pasquier | C. Ferland |
The bettors’ prediction
PMU bets of the day
Safe bet: 2 out of 4 in 4 horses
(Bet: €9.00 in Flexi 50)
Daring bet: Tiercé in 6 horses
(Bet: €10.00 in Flexi 50)
| 3 – 7 – 16 – 4 – 10 – 13 |
Risky bet: Quinté Base and Tocard
(Bet: €10.00 in Flexi 25)
| 3 – 7 – 16 – X – X / 4 – 10 – 13 – 14 – 11 |
Gold whip ranking
| N° | Jockey | Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Maxime Guyon | 1er |
| 5 | Mickaël Barzalona | 2nd |
| 8 | Alexis Pouchin | 3rd |
| 1 | Cristian Demuro | 4th |
| 6 | Christophe Soumillon | 11th |
Disability values
| N° | Cheval | Disability value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zarakem | 54,5 |
| 3 | Fantastic Moon | 54,5 |
| 4 | At Riffa | 54,5 |
| 9 | Vega’s look | 54,5 |
| 10 | Shin Emperor | 54,5 |
| 14 | Los Angeles | 54,5 |
| N° | Cheval | Weight/value difference |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Vega’s look | +2 kg |
| 10 | Shin Emperor | +2 kg |
| 14 | Los Angeles | +2 kg |
| 16 | Adventure | +2 kg |
| 13 | Sauce | +2,5 kg |
| 15 | Survival | +3,5 kg |
The Quinté prognosis in video
PMU bets available on this race
There are 7 horse racing bets on this main race with a strategy and a level of difficulty which vary depending on the number of winning numbers to be found: the single game, the coupled, the multi, the 2sur4, the trifecta, the quarté and the quinté +. Please note, if you play on the internet, you will find the same games on the PMU website with identical rules but they will have a slightly different name: e.simple, e.couplé, e.multi, e.2sur4, e.tiercé , e-quarté, e.quinté+. On the other hand, the gains will not be the same. Indeed, since December 2015, the PMU has been forced to separate its masses of issues. Punters playing online (pmu.fr) therefore benefit from different ratios from those playing at PMU (Pari Mutuel Urbain) points of sale, namely bars-tabac-presse pmu fdj and racecourses.
How much will your game cost at PMU?
It is important to set a budget not to exceed when betting on horse races. You must therefore have a good strategy to establish your PMU forecast and know the amount of your combination well, otherwise you risk exceeding the amount you had set. When you play in the unit formula, it is very simple to calculate the price of your ticket because you only need to have in mind the base stake of your horse racing bet. On the other hand, things get complicated if you want to play in a combined formula. Find, below, the prices of your games in combined formula (from 3 to 9 associated horses). The amounts are indicated according to the base stake for each horse racing bet.
PMU bets in combined formula
| Horses | Tiercé | Quarter | Fifth | Couple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.00 | 6.00 | ||
| 4 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 12.00 | |
| 5 | 10.00 | 7.50 | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| 6 | 20.00 | 22.50 | 12.00 | 30.00 |
| 7 | 35.00 | 52.50 | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| 8 | 56.00 | 105.00 | 112.00 | 56.00 |
| 9 | 84.00 | 189.00 | 252.00 | 72.00 |
Tiercé in reduced field:
| Associated horses | 1 base | 2 bases |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2.00 | |
| 3 | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| 4 | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| 5 | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| 6 | 30.00 | 6.00 |
| 7 | 42.00 | 7.00 |
| 8 | 56.00 | 8.00 |
Quarter in reduced field:
| Associated horses | 1 base | 2 bases | 3 bases |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 9.00 | 4.50 | |
| 4 | 36.00 | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| 5 | 90.00 | 30.00 | 7.50 |
| 6 | 180.00 | 45.00 | 9.00 |
| 7 | 315.00 | 63.00 | 10.50 |
| 8 | 504.00 | 84.00 | 12.00 |
Fifth in reduced field:
| Associated horses | 1 base | 2 bases | 3 bases | 4 bases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 12.00 | 6.00 | ||
| 4 | 48.00 | 24.00 | 8.00 | |
| 5 | 240.00 | 120.00 | 40.00 | 10.00 |
| 6 | 720.00 | 240.00 | 60.00 | 12.00 |
| 7 | 1680.00 | 420.00 | 84.00 | 14.00 |
About the author, Anthony Prioux
Born in Saint-Nazaire in Loire-Atlantique (44), a department which has many racetracks, I have been passionate about horse racing since adolescence. I actually became interested in horse racing when I was in high school. This passion for horse racing never left me and, over the years, I acquired real expertise in this field. It was therefore quite natural that in 2010, I began to offer my PMU predictions on the internet. I then created the site Fréquence Turf in 2013. Every day, I offer my free analysis of the Quinté+ race and my free prediction in eight horses with a loser at high odds and a solid basis for your bets on the field reduced. It is also possible to receive my predictions for trotting races by email by subscribing to the horse of the day.
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