Bitcoin (BTC) is slowly but steadily moving towards its all-time high. The market remains calm for the time being, while investors watch with excitement. Will the largest cryptocurrency finally break through, or is a correction imminent?
Limited retail participation: opportunity or risk?
According to data from blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, shared by analyst Carl Runefelt, a striking trend is playing out in the Bitcoin market: retail investor involvement is currently exceptionally low. This is notable because retail investors have often been a crucial driving force behind bull markets in the past. Their absence now outlines two possible scenarios for further price development:
Positive scenario: The current absence of retail investors can be seen as untapped potential. If this group still decides to join, it could herald a new phase of the bull run. A break above the all-time high (ATH) would then strengthen confidence in the market, attract more buyers and possibly lead to a parabolic price rise.
Negative scenario: Should Bitcoin fall below the $100,000 mark, market sentiment could be significantly damaged. Such a decline could trigger a downward correction, further undermining confidence in the market.
Historical patterns and future predictions
The question of whether Bitcoin can achieve a breakthrough remains a topic of discussion among analysts. Crypto analyst James van Straten sees strong similarities with 2017, a year in which Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) no less than 77 times. According to him, Bitcoin is currently moving within the classic four-year cycle, which is driven by the halving.
-If this pattern repeats, Van Straten predicts that the Bitcoin price could reach $186,000 in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of more than 75% from the current price. In the long term, he even thinks a value of $1.7 million is possible by the end of this year, although he emphasizes that this is an exceptionally optimistic scenario.
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