PSG qualified for the play-offs if…

PSG qualified for the play-offs if…
PSG qualified for the play-offs if…

Thanks to its sparkling victory against Manchester City (4-2), PSG has relaunched itself in this Champions League and is now in a good position to qualify. Here are the scenarios that would send the Parisians to the final phase on the last day.

This time, they know. After weeks of complex calculations and risky projections, PSG players now know the procedure to follow to qualify for the play-offs of the final phase of the Champions League. And the mission is far from infeasible for Parisians now settled in 22nd place in the LDC rankings.

Brilliant winners over Manchester City at the end of a completely crazy match which saw them come back from hell to win at the end of the match (4-2), the Parisians have only one match left to play, in a week on the pitch of VfB Stuttgart. And the players from the capital will have several strings to their bow to ensure their survival in the competition.

>> Champions League: relive the crazy match between PSG and Manchester City (4-2)

A victory, a draw or a headache…

The simplest solution would be to win or even draw in Germany. Because in the event of a sharing of points, PSG would then have 11 units and would be guaranteed to finish in the first 24. Indeed, could no longer be overtaken by Shakhtar Donetsk (27th with 7 points). We would therefore have to finish in front of two teams among the first 26 in the current ranking.

However, Stuttgart has a worse goal difference than the Parisians: in the event of a draw, they would necessarily be behind PSG in the final ranking. For its part, with 8 points on the clock this Wednesday, Manchester City will have no other choice than to win against Club Bruges to get back on par with the Parisians. But a Mancunian victory would have a consequence: the Belgians would finish with 11 points and a goal difference lower than what they have today, i.e. -2. PSG would therefore necessarily be in front, and guaranteed to finish in the first 24.

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But PSG could even qualify by losing in Stuttgart. To do this, three of the teams located between 21st and 27th place would need to not overtake the Parisian club. With 7 points and a goal difference of -6, Shakhtar Donetsk should annihilate Borussia Dortmund and count on a heavy defeat for Luis Enrique's men to overcome the 8 goal average points that separate them from Paris and double them in the standings. A scenario that seems very improbable.

Two other teams remain to be contained among Benfica, Sporting CP, Manchester City and Dinamo Zagreb. Two of them should therefore not exceed 10 points. Two of the following four conditions should then be met: a defeat for Benfica on Juve's pitch by one goal more than that of PSG in Stuttgart, a draw or a defeat for Manchester City against Bruges, a draw or a defeat of Dinamo Zagreb against AC Milan or a defeat of Sporting CP against Bologna by a margin similar or wider than that suffered by Paris in Germany.

PSG qualified for the Champions League play-offs if…

> He wins in Stuttgart

> He draws in Stuttgart

> He loses in Stuttgart and three of the following conditions are met:

  • Benfica loses at Juventus by at least one more goal than PSG's defeat in Stuttgart
  • Manchester City does not win against Bruges
  • Dinamo Zagreb fails to win against AC Milan
  • Sporting CP loses to Bologna by a similar or wider margin than PSG's defeat in Stuttgart
  • Shakhtar Donetsk does not win against Dortmund by a margin large enough to recover its poor goal difference (-8 against +2 for PSG)
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