By Neel Shelat
In a season of chaos and unpredictability in the Premier League’s upper and mid table, Nottingham Forest have been the big winners so far. While the likes of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are languishing in the bottom half and Manchester City are struggling to find their best form, Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have shot all the way up to the podium positions. If they manage to sustain such results, they will surely seal an unforgettable return to Europe.
Here is how Forest have gotten so far.
Busy transfer activity
While the source of much of Nottingham Forest’s funding is questionable, to say the least, it would be unfair to say that they have bought their way to success. They are still in the bottom half of the table as far as player payrolls are concerned, meaning their annual wage bill is less than half of the likes of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Since winning promotion to the Premier League in 2022, Forest have spent a fair bit in the transfer market though – over €400 million to be more exact. In that time span, they have made as many as 46 permanent signings! While a good chunk of those players have either been sold on or got moved around in Evangelos Marinakis’ multi-club ownership group, Forest’s squad has still been completely overhauled. In fact, Ryan Yates is the only player currently at the club to have represented them in the Championship.
An interesting aspect of Nottingham Forest’s transfer business is that they seem to have a policy of spreading out their investments rather than going big on one player. Their record transfer fee of just over €41m for Elliot Anderson (in a deal with Newcastle United that was allegedly conducted in a way to strategically adjust their balance sheets more than anything else) is only the 14th-highest club transfer record in the Premier League. They have only signed one other player for north of €30m, namely Ibrahim Sangaré. For the most part, their recruitment has been focused on finding cut-price deals from fellow Premier League clubs and major European markets as well as top South American sides.
Naturally, such a large amount of player turnover did not have an instant positive impact on the team’s performances. They just about survived the relegation battle in both of the last two seasons, finishing 16th and 17th. In the long run, though, all that matters is simply that they stayed up. There can be no doubt that the new signings have significantly raised the quality of the squad on paper, and with most of the new players now far more settled at the club, Forest had the platform to exceed expectations this season.
Rock-solid defensive blocks
While they have been well-supported in the transfer market, Nottingham Forest’s coaching staff and players deserve a lot of credit for what still is a huge overachievement so far this season. Their squad is ranked 10th in the Premier League by player market value, so the fact that they are so high up in the table is largely down to their excellent on-field performances.
At a time when the most interesting coaches and teams are regarded as the ones with the most novel tactical ideas, Forest are a breath of fresh air for showing that a simple yet effective and well-executed tactical plan can go a very long way. The foundational aspect of their success has to be their well-drilled and compact defensive block, which has proven tough to break down for all kinds of opponents.
Crucially, Nuno’s side are not wedded to one specific shape. While they generally like to start in a 4-2-3-1 mid block and drop into a 4-4-2 deeper, they are quite comfortable switching to a back five as well – especially against stronger opponents and / or when trying to see out a lead. That is why Forest have managed to concede the second-fewest goals and third-lowest xG tally in the league despite having by far the lowest possession average at under 40%!
Direct attacking punch
Nottingham Forest’s defence is very much the foundation for their attack. Indeed, it is thanks to their exceptional defensive record that they have managed to make do with a very mediocre attacking output. Their tally of 29 league goals scored is below the median, yet they have taken the lead on more occasions (17) than any other team. Forest have gone on to see out most of those games, losing just once and only dropping eight other points from winning positions.
By keeping games tight, Nuno’s side aim to lure their opponents out and hit them hard in transition – especially on the counter. Their tactics are obviously geared in this direction while the attackers in the squad are very well-suited to such a style too. The likes of Callum Hudson-Odoi and Antony Elanga offer great outlets on the wings thanks to their on and off-the-ball running, while the likes of Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White can quickly string attacks together in the central areas.
Chris Wood’s sensational form in front of goal has been extremely handy in finishing moves off.
Beyond their counterattacking threat, Forest also have the ability to break down more settled blocks. Their full backs have the energy levels required to bomb up and down the wings when needed, and they can even switch to a back three to chase a goal. The option of James Ward-Prowse on the bench can add to their set-piece threat along with a few imposing aerial presences in the side.
Putting all of that together, Nottingham Forest have struck a great balance with a tough-to-beat plan A and various avenues to score a crucial goal or see out a lead. So, there is little to suggest that they should drop too far down the standings in the second half of the season.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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