Prime Minister François Bayrou at the National Assembly on January 14, 2025 (AFP / Ludovic MARIN)
Will they arrive safely despite the pitfalls? François Bayrou and the Socialists appear close to a non-censorship agreement on Tuesday, in exchange for a rapid renegotiation of pension reform and budgetary concessions.
There will be “neither suspension nor repeal” of the pension reform but a renegotiation for approximately three months, i.e. before a new change in age group for retirement, the Prime Minister affirmed in Matignon on Tuesday morning in front of his supporters, according to several participants, a few hours before his general policy declaration.
“The social partners must have completed their work before” the deadline for changing the age group, i.e. “before the summer” to make their conclusions “effective”, and in this case “the suspension is no longer necessary,” detailed one of the participants.
According to a left-wing official, François Bayrou's proposal would be consistent with that formulated Monday evening by telephone by the boss of the Socialists Olivier Faure.
“We are perhaps a stone's throw, a few hours away from a possible agreement,” PS First Secretary Olivier Faure had said a few hours earlier on BFMTV and RMC, who in exchange would not censor the general policy declaration or the budget projects.
Olivier Faure also reported having obtained “a number of remarkable concessions (…)” on the budget “because they make it possible to break with what we have censored, that is to say the Barnier budget”.
– “Will to get there” –
The first secretary of the PS Olivier Faure on December 16, 2024 in Paris (AFP / LOU BENOIST)
The Socialists were to convene a National Bureau (leadership) at 1:00 p.m., two hours before the general policy declaration of François Bayrou who will reveal his intentions to the National Assembly.
At Matignon, we want to be more careful. “As long as it’s not +topic+ with the PS, it’s not +topic+. But there is a desire to get there,” we confirm.
Ironically, it is Élisabeth Borne, former Prime Minister and author of this contested pension reform, who will read in parallel before the Senate the same text, which could include concessions to her own law, adopted at the time in forceps using article 49.3.
At the center of the tensions, the revision of the starting age set at 64 years by the 2023 law through negotiations which would involve the social partners and would also deal with financing.
The socialists have been demanding in recent days that the suspension of the pension reform be effective from the start of the renegotiation of the law, and not only in the event of success. However, if the discussions take place between two changes of age classes, no suspension is necessary.
– “Funded” developments –
It remains to be seen what this would mean in practice. Could people born in 1963 leave at 62 years and 6 months (with a contribution period of 42 years and one quarter) instead of 62 years and 9 months (with a period of 42.5 years) as planned?
If unlike his predecessor Michel Barnier, trapped by the RN, François Bayrou is banking on the left to stay in power, he must not turn away his allies on the right either.
On the right, we were pleased that there was no suspension of the reform. “It is up to the social partners to think about developments” in the reform but “financed” developments, added a participant in a meeting of the Les Républicains (LR) group, also welcoming the fact that there is “no new taxes” in the draft budget.
While the presidential camp is divided over a suspension of the reform, one of its executives says he is ready to validate the arrangement under discussion. “There is a financial problem, it's obvious. On a three-month schedule – very short – if there is an agreement from the social partners for a different procedure that is financially favorable, we take it.”
EELV national secretary Marine Tondelier in Matignon on December 17, 2024 (AFP / LOU BENOIST)
No suspension, it's “good news given the economic situation”, said Naïma Moutchou, Horizons vice-president of the National Assembly.
Whatever François Bayrou's announcements, the Insoumis will table a motion of censure which will be examined on Thursday or Friday. The break seems complete between socialists and Insoumis.
If the communists seem willing to follow the PS, the head of the Ecologists Marine Tondelier on the other hand responded to AFP “not understanding the euphoria of the socialists”, and judges that “the current state of discussions does not provide a reason to consider something other than censorship.
The LFI motion of censure, however, has no chance of being adopted since the RN has confirmed that it will not vote for it.
