ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — For much of the season, the Bills have been the ones serving statement drives and plays at the beginning stages of a game. But this time, the Bills had to withstand an opening punch from the opponent.
The Broncos took the game’s opening drive 70 yards in five plays for a touchdown, forcing the Bills to respond — and quickly. Although it took a while for the Bills to get their offensive engine going, they eventually did, while the defense slammed the door on the Broncos the rest of the day en route to a 31-7 blowout victory Sunday.
The Bills captured yet another wild-card win under head coach Sean McDermott and will return to the AFC divisional round for a fifth straight season.
What stood out from their first playoff matchup and how might that move forward into their upcoming contest? Here are several observations from the Bills’ win.
Bobby Babich steals the show with in-game adjustments vs. the Broncos
As the Bills entered the postseason, the defense had heard all the noise about its side of the ball. Granted, some of it was in-house critiques of areas they needed to improve, but there was a clear motivator as they began their playoff journey against the Broncos. Run defense. Third-down defense. Explosive plays. They’ve had their moments throughout the season, but the inconsistencies invited room for chatter. On Sunday against the Broncos, the Bills had one of those ceiling games, dominating the opponent from their second offensive drive straight through the end of the game. A lot of it had to do with player performance, though the plan of attack and the in-game adjustment by defensive coordinator Bobby Babich played a critical role in their dominance.
GO DEEPER
Allen powers Bills past Broncos 31-7, into showdown with Ravens: Takeaways
On that first touchdown drive, the Broncos averaged 14 yards per play, and most notably, rookie quarterback Bo Nix had an average yards per attempt of 32 after those two passes — a third-and-8 gut punch that went for 19 yards and a busted coverage that led to a 43-yard touchdown. Even in that drive, the Broncos had a pair of rushing attempts that went for 5 yards or more. All of the areas of weakness — the third down, the run defense, the explosive plays — popped up in just five plays.
Defensive end Greg Rousseau said the 43-yard touchdown pass was a bit of a fluke, in the team’s opinion. Cornerback Rasul Douglas said it was a bit of a communication error between himself and safety Taylor Rapp and vowed to not let it happen again. And then, the silence from the Broncos offense the rest of the way was deafening — an incredibly impressive performance from the Bills defense.
The run defense allowed only 2.8 yards per carry to running backs and receivers for the rest of the game. The Broncos’ yards per play plummeted to 3.9 from the second drive through the end of the game. Nix’s yards per dropback plummeted to only 4.1 yards, which included his 43 yards of scrambling throughout the day. The Bills allowed only one third-down success to the Broncos the rest of the game, and the lone conversion came on a third-and-1 that Nix sneaked past the line. The other seven attempts averaged minus-0.4 yards per play. Even with that lone third-down conversion, the Broncos were still in the negative on yardage over those final eight attempts. The Bills also vanquished both of the Broncos’ attempts on fourth down to put the offense back on the field. It was an impressive showing, as head coach Sean McDermott’s sterling record against inexperienced quarterbacks yielded another prime example.
While players like Rousseau and linebacker Matt Milano deserve credit for how they dominated, Babich was the true star. He learned an early lesson on that first drive, specifically on third down. The Bills sent a blitz at Nix on that third-and-8, which in that case was linebacker Terrel Bernard. Nix, whose yards per attempt actually improved against the blitz during the regular season, saw the vacated zone from Bernard and threw into the empty space to wide receiver Courtland Sutton for a 19-yard gain. Babich learned his lesson and took his foot off the blitzing pedal.
From there, the Bills focused more on a four-man rush, but with a twist. Babich put a heavy emphasis on loading up the box in obvious passing situations to make Nix think the blitz was coming, only for those blitz-threatening defenders to hightail it back into their coverage zones, taking away the throws that came easier to Nix. On top of that, the Bills placed a premium on containing Nix inside the pocket and limiting his scramble opportunities. He broke that contain three times, but two of those came after the Bills were already up by 21 points.
The Bills will be up against far greater offensive opponents than the Broncos from the divisional round on, but this was a much-needed reminder that they can string together a big performance like this on a big stage. The Broncos aren’t anything to sneeze at, though, averaging over 30 points per game over the final two months. But the Bills are quite unlikely to get another rookie quarterback the rest of the way unless somehow Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders go on a road game frenzy. Regardless, a performance like this one is just what they needed entering a matchup against a Ravens offense that put up 35 points on them in Week 4.
Matt Milano has a third-down role, but not his usual
When the game began, the Bills went to their usual operating rules on third down. Just as they had been doing since his return from injured reserve, Milano came off the field, and the team subbed in Cam Lewis to be the dime ‘backer. They also shifted defensive end Dawuane Smoot to defensive tackle to rush alongside Ed Oliver. But as Babich’s approach shifted throughout the game into less of a blitzing approach, they decided to use Milano on third downs — but not in his usual linebacker role.
The Bills still brought Lewis into the game to serve as the dime ’backer, but rather than bringing in Smoot for one of the defensive tackle roles, that became Milano’s job. Milano hovered at the line of scrimmage and either served as the team’s fourth rusher or kept a close eye on Nix to serve as the quarterback spy. Milano performed excellently in the role and kept Nix in check on those plays. The only three times Nix scrambled happened on first down. Milano’s third-down role could be a preview of how the Bills approach next weekend’s game against the Ravens, given how much of a rushing threat Lamar Jackson is to a defense. Getting Milano established in that way is an encouraging sign if they decide to go with it against the Ravens.
Yet another highlight for the Bills offensive line
This matchup saw two big strengths going head to head. The Broncos boast one of the top-producing defensive lines in the NFL this season, and they were up against a Bills offensive line that is among the league’s elite. If one of those two strengths dominated the matchup, it would go a long way to winning — and the Bills offensive line dominated the matchup. On top of usually giving Josh Allen a ton of time to throw, with his fourth-and-1 touchdown throw to Ty Johnson being the prime example of that, the Bills’ front five continued their run-blocking prowess.
When the Bills offense was sputtering a bit early, it leaned into the ground game with James Cook and allowed that to take back the lead and add to it as the contest continued. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady spotted the trend early and, to his credit, kept it going to build the lead. While the running game became more predictable as the game continued, specifically on first downs, forcing Brady to pivot, it served its purpose early. The Bills offensive line, as it’s been all year, was the engine of their offense, and should they finally push into the Super Bowl this year, it will likely be one of the most significant reasons that it happens.
Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid late-season roles remain
Ahead of the contest, there was some discussion as to whether the Bills were “hiding” a pair of their bigger-name skill players near the end of the regular season. That duo consisted of wide receiver Amari Cooper and tight end Dalton Kincaid, whom the Bills invested substantially in over the last two years. Cooper was their trade acquisition of the season, while Kincaid was the team’s first-round pick in 2023. Both players were playing under 50 percent of the team’s offensive snaps over the final month of the season. However, even with the stakes growing in the postseason, their roles did not waver.
Kincaid remained the backup to Dawson Knox and, by our unofficial count, played on only 40.5 percent of the snaps. They did use Kincaid well against man-to-man coverage, but his role remained the same since Kincaid’s return from a late-season knee injury. Cooper, who in his last game active in Week 17 had his lowest snap percentage (34.4 percent) since his Bills debut in Week 7 (34.5), again came close to that mark against the Broncos. Cooper took only 36.7 percent of the offensive snaps and had the lowest number of snaps of the team’s five receivers. The reason for this is likely simple. The Bills have been humming along on offense for a long time now, and making a seismic shift just because of the postseason likely flies in the face of their overall philosophy: To find what works and keep doing it until it doesn’t.
Bills MVP: QB Josh Allen — This was a close battle between Allen and the offensive line, but Allen’s rabbit-out-of-a-hat throws on fourth-and-1 for the Ty Johnson touchdown, along with the 55-yard touchdown to Curtis Samuel on a third down, gave him the edge as the Bills boatraced the Broncos.
Bills LVP: ST coordinator Matthew Smiley — Another game and another blunder in situational awareness for special teams. The Bills were up against Sean Payton, a known special teams trickster, and were caught completely off guard on a fake punt play. There have been far too many situations like this one for the Bills this season.
Up Next: The No. 2 Bills will get their chance to avenge their 25-point loss in Week 4, hosting the No. 3 Ravens in Orchard Park with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line.
(Top photo of Josh Allen: Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)
