The first round of the Australian Open kicks off on Day 1 with 16 men’s matches scheduled for Sunday. There should be some incredible action Down Under, and–as always–we here at LastWordOnTennis share our thoughts on every singles match. We split the day’s 16 matches between four articles. The other articles feature Kei Nishikori vs Thiago Monteiro, Alexander Zverev vs Lucas Pouille and Casper Ruud vs Jaume Munar. Predicting this set of matches are Ateet Shrivastava, Ismael Gonzalez and Yesh Ginsburg. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 1 Men’s Predictions
Jiri Lehecka vs Li Tu
Ateet: Lehecka has shown time and time again how destructive his game is and with a title win in Brisbane last week, he will be full of confidence to make some noise at the Australian Open. Lehecka is a former quarterfinalist here and in this form, I can’t see him losing this match.
Prediction: Lehecka in 3
Ismael: Jiri has had a great start to his 2025 campaign, claiming in Brisbane yet another title on Australian soil after winning Adelaide in 2024. He has established himself as a very hard player to beat on hard-courts. Li Tu, on the other hand, has had a positive start to the season, beating good players in Klein and Duckworth, and will try to get the crowd involved. But it’s very hard to imagine him troubling the aggressive game of Lehecka.
Prediction: Lehecka in 3
Yes: Li Tu has so much potential. I can’t wait to see what he does when he develops a little more. Unfortunately for him, he’s been given a tough draw against an in-form player.
Prediction: Lehecka in 4
Yoshihito Nishioka vs Aziz Dougaz
Ateet: Nishioka is making his 10th main draw appearance at the Australian Open, which speaks volumes about his experience. The Japanese player is nowhere near his peak these days, but he remains a difficult player to beat on hard courts. The qualifier, Aziz Dougaz is into his first Grand Slam main draw and can trouble Nishioka with his big serve. However, Nishioka will find a way to win this match with his better overall gameplay.
Prediction: Nishioka in
Ismael: Nishioka has had a solid start to the season, reaching the second round in Brisbane and pushing Lehecka and Kokkinakis to deciding sets. His left-handed, topspin-heavy game is very tricky to deal with, especially for lower-ranked players. Dougaz did very well to survive three deciding sets in qualifying against good opponents, but outlasting Nishioka in a Grand Slam is a monumental ask for a player outside the top 200.
Prediction: Nishioka in
Yes: Nishioka is more consistent and just an overall better player right now. I don’t expect this to be a great match.
Prediction: Nishioka in
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Yunchaokete Bu vs Hady Habib
Ateet: Yunchaokete Bu might not have made a great start to the year but his talent is undoubtable and he will look to put it on full display in Melbourne. This is Bu’s first main draw appearance at the Australian Open and he has a good opener on paper. The qualifier, Hady Habib is the first Lebanese player in the Open Era to reach a men’s singles main draw at a Grand Slam. This is a big achievement for Habib and Lebanese tennis, but I can’t see him going any further.
Prediction: Bu in 4
Ismael: Habib is in the midst of a great run, following a Challenger win with qualification to both the Canberra Challenger and the Australian Open. However, he has not faced opponents of Bu’s level. The Chinese player, on the other hand, has lost both his matches this year but took Borges to a deciding tie-break. Yunchaokete was great at the Challenger level, and he should have enough to beat Habib once again.
Prediction: Yunchaokete in 5
Yes: Both of these men have tremendous stories. Bu competes for China, but he’s also really the first Mongolian tennis player to win a tournament at any strong level. Habib, meanwhile, is the first ever Lebanese man to compete at a Major. One will continue a fairy tale run, while the other will go home. Bu has more talent, but Habib has momentum right now.
Prediction: Habib in 5
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juncheng Shang
Ateet: This is easily one of the day’s best matches, as both players have excellent defense and long rallies are to be expected. Shang has made a great start to the year and could have won the title in Hong Kong if not for the illness. Fokina has already lost two of the three matches he played this year. However, he has defeated Shang in both their encounters. I expect a close match as both are evenly matched but leaning slightly towards the Chinese player.
Prediction: Shang in 5
Ismael: What a fascinating set of circumstances surrounding this match. Shang is in better form, but he just retired against Nishikori. Davidovich won both of their matches in 2024, but they were on clay and grass. Adding to the uncertainty, they are both very inconsistent. While almost impossible to predict the winner given the situation, the currently-healthier Fokina should probably win once again if the match becomes a long battle.
Prediction: Davidovich Fokina in 5
Yes: Juncheng Shang might have been the future of Chinese men’s tennis, though Zhizhen Zhang will challenge him for that spot. Davidovich Fokina might never come close to winning a Slam, but he still does have Top 10 potential and will like these pretty fast hard courts.
Prediction: Davidovich Fokina in 4
Main Photo Credit: Katie Stratman – USA TODAY Sports
