This is all the more so since this is not the first time that Emmanuel Macron has drawn up this possibility and that in the end, he does not resort to it, letting its potential use die in the limbo of collective oblivion. The pointillist form of this teaser which does not really say it says something deep down, beyond the uncertainty hovering over the referendum appeal.
What question for what issue? It is difficult to imagine the host of the Élysée questioning the French on issues which, however, supported by opinion studies, mobilize them: whether it is pensions, the red line for the Macronist doxa, or the immigration, a subject which some will argue does not fall within the scope of the referendum, the French are very generally and broadly aware of the issues on which they wish to be consulted.
The hiatus has come since 2005 and from the no to the European constitutional treaty project, from the apprehension of the elites to give voice to a people whom they believe would be insufficiently enlightened to respond in conscience to the major questions relating to their existential future. From then on, the incarnation of the elite party that Emmanuel Macron remains will probably not let go of anything that could call into question all or part of what is essential in his globalist and Brussels program.
Everything supports the idea that if there is a referendum, it will be exclusively on secondary points
Everything supports the idea, on the contrary, that if there is a referendum, it will be exclusively on secondary, peripheral, even societal points, without risk for the doctrinal body of the supporters of the single thought. Furthermore, it is a safe bet that the form that this consultation could take will in all likelihood be worded in such a way that it will not involve any consequences for the president.
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We understand: the president's whole objective is no longer so much, like last year at the same time, to relaunch his five-year term as to avoid losing it definitively. Hence his call to the constituent forces of the National Assembly to find compromises, thus placing the responsibility on the latter for possible institutional paralysis if they fail to reach an agreement at a minimum. By suggesting the prospect of returning to the voters to decide on a certain number of subjects whose content he does not specify more than the scope, Emmanuel Macron is trying to arouse the feeling that he remains able to control a situation that he has nevertheless made very little controllable.
Faced with the test of an indocile Assembly, of a Prime Minister who has imposed himself much more than he has appointed, the Head of State is seeking a narrow path between the chronic instability which he does not want. not be held responsible and an institutional initiative which would allow him, above all the parties and the head of government, to forge a direct link with the French to try to dispel the looming regime crisis.
But does the return to the people still have any meaning when the thread is so frayed, if it is not accompanied by all the implications that should be deduced through the prism of the original spirit of the Fifth? ? A Gaullian strategy in a way, but without, except surprisingly, the categorical prerequisites that General de Gaulle set for popular resourcing, namely its maintenance or not depending on the result…
*Arnaud Benedetti is associate professor at the Sorbonne and author of “At the gates of power – RN, the inevitable victory? » (Michel Lafon).
