 – Yahoo! Finance](https://euro.dayfr.com/content/uploads/2024/12/19/8e243a03ed.jpg)
In the S&P500 monthly report, we explain the trends in the US market based on the price movements of the S&P500. We not only examine overall market trends, but also analyze industry and individual stock levels to provide an in-depth explanation of the current state of the U.S. market.
●THE S&P 500 MARKET: November 2024
Personal opinion: When the election results became clear quickly, stock prices reacted quickly and immediately reached new highs. Markets focus on expected government policy changes and (of course) fundamentals (company performance)
The US presidential election once again did not go as polls predicted. In the early morning hours the day after the election (November 6th), it was reported that Trump’s victory was certain, but the race was not as close as expected, and ended in Trump’s landslide victory. Although the final results are not yet available, Harris won 226 electoral votes (majority 270) to Trump’s 312, giving Trump 49.9% of the vote (76.9 million votes). Harris received 48.3% (74.4 million votes). In the Senate, Republicans regained the majority from Democrats with a vote of 53 to 47 (Democrats currently hold a majority of seats, 51 to 49). Republicans will maintain a majority in the House of Representatives, and the next session is expected to begin with 220 Republicans, 214 Democrats (majority of 218 seats), and one vacant seat (currently 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and three vacant seats). . So we stay in the market and continue to invest, but when it comes to tax-exempt and deferred tax assets, it’s better to liquidate your portfolio and invest in short-term financial instruments and take advantage of higher-priced options as insurance. may lead to consequences.
In response to the election results, the market initially experienced a broad (though not all-out) relief rally. It was expected that there would be a prolonged conflict over the election results, but that situation was averted. Specifically, the day after the election, the S&P 500 index closed above 5,900 for the first time, marking the 48th time this year that it reached a new all-time high. The financial sector led the rise, rising 6.2% on expectations for deregulation, mergers among small and medium-sized financial institutions, and more general M&A. On the other hand, stocks that have fallen are likely to be adversely affected by expected changes in government regulations and spending-related policies, such as solar power generation-related stocks and those that rely on imports from China, such as dollar stores. Stocks, as well as some housing and real estate-related stocks, fell sharply in value.
The focus is on the breakdown of voters (by age, gender, race, and region). According to the initial breakdown, major changes have occurred in the traditional support bases of the Republican and Democratic parties, and changes in the party’s policy priorities have occurred. (and pollsters will need to reconsider their assumptions and research methods).
The market then hit new highs for three consecutive days, with the S&P 500 index breaking above 6,000 at the close, and two more closing highs. One of these was on the last business day of November, bringing the number of new highs in November to 6 (highest price during trading hours was 6044.17 and highest price at closing price was 6032.38). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Industrial Average) followed suit, hitting new highs seven times during the month, hitting $44,000 for the first time, then passing the $45,000 milestone, its highest closing price ever. The stock closed the month at $45,071.29 during trading hours, but closed at $44,910.65, just short of the $45,000 milestone.
The relief rally has now ended and asset and security allocations have been reassessed as markets digest the impact of expected policy, regulation and spending. The S&P 500 index rose a massive 5.73% in November, with all 11 sectors gaining. The number of increasing stocks was 385 (147 stocks increased by more than 10%), and the number of decreasing stocks was 118 (12 stocks decreased by more than 10%). In contrast, in October, there were 199 rising stocks and 304 declining stocks. By sector, Consumer Discretionary was the best performing sector with an increase of 13.24%, while Healthcare was the worst performing with an increase of 0.13%.
While the news is dominated by elections, Cabinet nominations, and policy (tariffs, immigration, spending cuts), Wall Street continues to focus on (and trade on) corporate performance. Operating income for the third quarter of 2024 (95.6% of which has already been announced) was the highest ever (up 2.0% from the previous record high in the second quarter of 2024), and sales also hit a new record high (previously The operating profit margin is expected to remain at a high level of 11.9% (up 2.2% from the record high in the fourth quarter of 2023) (average of 8.5% since the first quarter of 1993). Forward-looking expectations, although slightly revised downward (and with significant changes expected in December), remain largely unchanged for the next five quarters (Q4 2024 to 2025). It is expected that the company will continue to record record high profits until the fourth quarter. However, it’s worth noting that the company is already paying for the expected growth, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22x 2025 estimates.
Although politics has taken over the headlines (and will probably return at some point), the actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are extremely important. In this regard, Wall Street still expects a 0.25% rate cut at the December 17-18, 2024 meeting (66% probability). We will take a wait-and-see attitude in January (no change), and expect another 0.25% interest rate cut at the meeting on March 18-19, 2025 (however, economic indicators will be announced and the political schedule will be decided by then. It’s packed).
Overall, although the market fluctuated greatly in 2024 (in addition, it was extremely volatile), it looks like 2024 will end as a year with significant price increases. The year-to-date increase rate of the S&P 500 index is 26.47% (total return including dividends is 28.07%. The increase rate in 2023 is 24.23%, 26.29% including dividends, 20 Market capitalization increased by $11 trillion (US 2024 budget is $6.75 trillion, debt is $36 trillion). — The debt ceiling suspension period will end on January 1, 2025, but the Ministry of Finance will issue new debt after the bridging budget expires on December 20, 2024 (a new bridging budget is expected to be enacted). You can “make ends meet” until the upper limit is set. The November and year-end reports will be well-received by investors, but could lead to a slight increase in tax revenue (expected for December 2024 and paid in 2025), which the U.S. government will decide how to spend. I’m sure you’ll find it.
●Index movement
○The stock market survived the election in November, and the S&P 500 index continued to rise (up 5.73% for the month), setting new closing highs six times during the month (53 times since the beginning of the year). Once the election results were known early, the stock breached (and closed above) the 5900 and 6000 milestones for the first time. Once the Dow reached the 44,000 mark, it closed above this level as well. It also surpassed the $45,000 milestone for the first time (although it didn’t reach it at the closing price) and set new closing price highs seven times during the month (47 times since the beginning of the year).
⇒In November, the S&P 500 index rose 5.73% (total return including dividends was +5.87%). In October, it decreased by 0.99% (-0.91%), and in September, it rose by 2.02% (+2.14%).
⇒The rate of change in the S&P 500 index over the past three months was an increase of 6.80% (+7.15%).
⇒It has increased by 26.47% since the beginning of the year (+28.07%), which is equivalent to an annualized rate of 29.08% (+30.86%).
⇒In the past year, it has increased by 32.06% (+33.89%).
⇒In November, there were 385 rising stocks and 118 falling stocks, which means that the number of rising stocks increased and significantly exceeded the declining stocks (in October, there were 199 rising stocks and 304 declining stocks). .
⇒In November, the price rose on 15 out of 20 business days (in October, it rose on 11 out of 23 business days, and since the beginning of the year, it has risen on 134 out of 231 business days), and 1 in 3 business days. It fluctuated by more than %, of which 2 business days were up (1 business day was up more than 2%) and 1 business day was down. In contrast, in October, prices fluctuated (increased) by more than 1% in one business day. Year-to-date, the stock has changed by more than 1% in 45 business days (29 business days up, 3 of them up 2% or more, 16 business days down, 3 of them down 2% or more).
⇒All 11 sectors rose (3 sectors rose in October).
○The market capitalization of the S&P 500 index increased by $2,793 billion in November (down $465 billion in October) to $51,029 billion. Year-to-date, it has increased by $10.991 trillion. In 2023, it increased by $7,906 billion, and in 2022, it decreased by $8,224 billion.
○The Dow Jones Industrial Average updated its closing price seven times in November (47 times since the beginning of the year), and continued to rise even after the closing price exceeded $44,000, reaching $45,000 during trading hours. Although it broke through, it did not reach the closing price of $45,000 (the highest closing price was $44,910.65, and the highest price during the trading session was $45,071.29). In addition, the highest price was updated 7 times in October, 7 times in September, 4 times in August, and 3 times in July. The index rose 7.54% in November (for a total return of 7.74% including dividends), ending the month at $44,910.65 (its highest closing price). In October, it fell by 1.34% (-1.26%) to $41,763.46, and in September it rose by 1.86% (+1.96%) to end the month at $42,330.15. The rate of change in the past three months has increased by 8.05% (up 8.47%), year-to-date it has increased 19.16% (up 21.21%), and in the past year it has increased 24.92% (up 27.19%). In 2023, it increased by 13.70% (+16.18%), and in 2022, it decreased by 8.78% (-6.86%).
○November’s intraday volatility (calculated by dividing the intraday price range by the low price) was 0.83%, up from 0.81% in October (1.08% in September), and is 0.91% year-to-date. . In addition, it was 1.04% in 2023, 1.83% in 2022, 0.97% in 2021, and 1.51% in 2020 (long-term average is 1.42%).
○ Trading volume in November increased by 17% month-on-month (after adjusting for the number of business days) after decreasing 10% month-on-month in October, and increased by 9% compared to the same month last year. In the 12 months to November 2024, it has decreased by 2% compared to the same period last year. For the full year of 2023, it was down 1% from the previous year, and for the full year of 2022, it was up 6%.
○In November, there were 3 days out of 20 business days when the stock price fluctuated by 1% or more (2 days of rising, 1 day of falling), and 1 day where the stock fluctuated by 2% or more (rising). In October, there was one day (down) out of 23 business days when the stock price fluctuated by 1% or more, and there was no day when the stock fluctuated by 2% or more. Year-to-date, the number of days with a 1% or more change was 45 days (29 days up, 16 days down), and the number of days with a 2% or more change was 6 days (3 days up, 3 days down). For the full year of 2023, the number of days with a change of 1% or more is 63 out of 250 business days (37 days of increase, 26 days of decrease), the number of days with a change of 2% or more is 2 days (1 day of increase, 1 day of decrease) It was. In November, the intraday volatility was 1% or more on 6 days out of 20 business days, and there was no day when it was 2% or more. In contrast, in October, there were 5 days out of 23 business days where the fluctuation was more than 1%, and there was no day when it was more than 2%. Year-to-date, there have been 76 days with intraday fluctuations of 1% or more, and 9 days with fluctuations of 2% or more. In 2023, there were 113 days with a fluctuation of 1% or more, 13 days with a fluctuation of 2% or more, and no fluctuations of 3% or more (the most recent fluctuation of 3% or more was on November 30, 2022). day). In 2022, there were 219 days of fluctuations of 1% or more, 89 days of fluctuations of 2% or more, and 20 days of fluctuations of 3% or more (4 days of fluctuations of 4% or more, 1 day of fluctuations of 5% or more). .
Looking at past performance, there is a 61.5% probability of an increase in November, with an average increase rate of 4.11% in rising months, an average decline rate of 4.16% in declining months, and an overall average increase/decrease rate of 0.97%. It becomes. The S&P 500 index rose 5.73% in November 2024.
There is a 72.9% probability that the stock will rise in December (the highest probability of any month), with an average increase rate of 2.99% in rising months and a 3.19% average decline rate in falling months, with an overall average increase of 1.32%. It becomes.
The upcoming U.S. Federal Open Market Committee FOMC schedule is December 17-18 in 2024, January 28-29 in 2025, and March 18-19. Sunday, May 6th-7th, June 17th-18th, July 29th-30th, September 16th-17th, October 28th-29th, December 9th-10th. It has become.
*Continued to “Trump’s landslide victory brings market rebound to record highs (2)”
Stock search news (minkabu PRESS)
