A lot of time has been spent this year trying to figure out when La Niña would officially begin. You may recall the headlines warning of a busier than normal hurricane season, and a drier, warmer winter in the southern United States due to the effects of La Niña. I’ll admit, I’ve been one of the many “La Niña watchdogs” eagerly tracking its anticipated arrival. But so far, the warnings haven’t panned out, and we’re all still left waiting for La Niña to begin!
The Climate Prediction Center issued their La Niña watch in September, with a 71% chance it would develop by November. Now, halfway through December, there’s still no sign of it! It’s a bit like pressing the gas pedal in your car without engaging the drive gears — you’re left stuck in neutral (and yes, this has only happened to me once or twice … I promise).
According to the latest discussion from the prediction center, forecasters currently see a 59% chance of La Niña beginning sometime during November to January, followed by a 61% likelihood of a neutral pattern between March and May 2025. So, even if La Niña does begin, it’s already expected to not last very long.
Interestingly enough, the weather across the United States for the next three months is still forecasted to mimic a La Niña pattern, despite remaining in neutral. This means drier- and warmer-than-normal conditions for much of the southern United States, while the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Lakes region experience cooler and wetter conditions.
Seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks, issued Nov. 21, 2024.Courtesy Climate Prediction Center
In a true El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral pattern, the southern United States typically sees warmer-than-normal conditions, with a wet bullseye spanning from East Texas into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region remains cold, influenced by the position of the polar jet stream, which dominates much of the country’s winter weather.
The typical weather patterns in North America during a neutral ENSO phase.Courtesy Ray Wolf, National Weather Service
These patterns may portray a slightly different picture when the prediction center releases its updated three-month outlook in a few more days. Forecasters will analyze the latest data to determine the most likely conditions as we look ahead to January through March.
Once they release their new predictions, we here at LoneStarLive.com will surely analyze any changes that may have an impact on you. Be sure to check back here to stay on top of all things winter. Happy Holidays!
