After Week 14, I have seven winning weeks in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest and seven losing weeks. Unfortunately, the losses have outnumbered the wins. My record entering NFL Week 15 is 34-36, tied for 3,010th out of 5,632 entries. Fortunately, the “4th Quarter” contest began last week, and I’m one of 678 people who went 4-1 or better. The person with the highest winning rate from Weeks 14-18 wins $150,000, so I still have something to play for.
Week 14 Recap: 4-1
- Green Bay Packers (+3.5) ✅
- Cincinnati Bengals (-6) ✅
- Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) ✅
- Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) ✅
- Chicago Bears (+4) ❌
The Week 15 spreads for the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Circa Million VI NFL Week 15 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
- Atlanta Falcons (-4)
- Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
- Houston Texans (-2.5)
Circa Million VI #1: Dallas Cowboys at Panthers (-2.5)
Based on how Carolina is trending and Dallas’s soul-crushing, season-ending loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 14, the Panthers are my favorite bet this week. For a detailed handicap of Cowboys-Panthers, check out my written article (here) and/or podcast (link below) instead of me repeating myself.
(LISTEN to Cowboys-Panthers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Buccaneers (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers
I cannot figure out this line. Tampa Bay has wins over the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles, covers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers at full strength, and better underlying metrics than the Chargers, who have the worst home-field advantage in the NFL. Rather than trying to figure it out, I’ll take +3 with the Bucs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers is one of my five picks in Week 15 of the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest (Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)
(LISTEN to Cowboys-Panthers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Falcons (-4) at Las Vegas Raiders
Atlanta is one game behind Tampa Bay for first in the NFC South with the tiebreaker and needs this game like blood. This is first-year Falcons QB Kirk Cousins‘ last stand. If Atlanta loses this game, Cousins will likely be replaced with rookie QB Michael Penix Jr.
Turnovers have plagued the Falcons. They are -9 in turnover margin, which ranks 28th. Atlanta has more turnovers than its opponents in six of their seven losses this season. But, the Raiders have the worst turnover margin in the NFL (-17) with the second-fewest takeaways.
Also, Atlanta’s defense should have a bounce-back game vs. whoever starts at quarterback for Las Vegas. The Falcons’ pass rush has come alive in the past two weeks against good offensive lines, combining for 9 sacks vs. the Chargers two weeks ago and the Minnesota Vikings last week.
Atlanta’s secondary had an awful game against the Vikings in Week 14. Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson caught a 52-yard TD, WR Jordan Addison caught a 49-yard TD, and drew 47-yard defensive pass interference, resulting in a touchdown. Basically, the Falcons’ defensive backs lost the ball in the air or had blown coverage three times.
However, the Raiders don’t have field-stretchers like Jefferson and Addison nor do they have a quarterback who throws a good deep ball. Plus, if Las Vegas third-string, and former Atlanta QB, Desmond Ridder starts for the banged-up QB Aidan O’Connellthose butt-hurt Falcons’ defensive backs get to take their anger out on a quarterback they are familiar with.
(LISTEN to Falcons-Raiders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Packers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Either this line is wrong or I’m walking into a trap. I’m picking the former and poo-pooing Seattle’s current four-game winning streak. Those wins include the Niners (20-17 in Week 11), the Arizona Cardinals twice (16-6 in Week 12 and 30-18 last week), and the New York Jets (26-21 in Week 13).
The 49ers are cursed this season and San Francisco’s defense couldn’t pressure Seahawks QB Geno Smith once pass rusher Nick Bosa left the game with an injury. The Jets are more cursed than the Niners and blew a fourth-quarter lead over Seattle.
Maybe the Seahawks just match up well with the Cardinals, who were projected to finish last in the NFC West preseason. Yet, Green Bay beat the crap out of Arizona 34-13 in Week 6. The Packers out-gained the Cardinals by 0.7 yards per play, converted 11 more first downs, and possessed the ball for 13 minutes longer.
Furthermore, Green Bay’s offense is clicking right now. Packers QB Jordan Love is third in QB Rating over the last three weeks, behind red-hot Vikings QB Sam Darnold and Buffalo Bills QB, 2024-25 NFL MVP favorite, Josh Allen. The Packers have scored 29+ points in eight games this season.
Their four losses are to the first-place Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil, the first-place Detroit Lions (twice), and the 11-2 Vikings. The Seahawks got dominated by the 2-11 New York Giants 29-20 at home in Week 5. Ultimately, if these two teams play their A+ game Sunday, Green Bay should win by at least a touchdown, regardless of the venue.
(LISTEN to Packers-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Miami Dolphins at Texans (-2.5)
Miami cannot run the ball and I like Houston defensive head coach DeMeco Ryans coming off a bye vs. a one-dimensional offense. Over their last five games, the Dolphins ran for 67 yards vs. the Los Angeles Rams, 82 yards vs. Las Vegas, 65 yards vs. the New England Patriots, 39 yards vs. Green Bay, and 44 yards vs. the Jets.
The Texans lead the NFL in defensive rushing success rate. They held Bills QB Josh Allen to 9-for-30 passing for 131 yards in a 23-20 win in Week 5. If the Dolphins cannot get the run going, QB Tua Tagovailoa will be a sitting duck in the pocket without All-Pro LT Terron Armstead against Houston’s two elite pass rushers: Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
Miami never performs well in these spots. The Dolphins are 1-10 straight up and 4-7 against the spread on the road vs. teams with a winning record with a -8.8 spread differential. Finally, these teams took the identity of their coaches. Miami is a soft finesse team and Houston is physical. In December, the more physical teams usually win.
(LISTEN to Dolphins-Texans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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