How his fall is changing the country and the Middle East

Shortly before 7 a.m. local time the time had come: the Syrian capital Damascus had fallen into the hands of the rebel alliance led by the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Bashar al-Asad’s regime has fallen. This was announced on Sunday first by the militia members themselves and shortly afterwards by the Syrian army and Syria’s Prime Minister.

In a very short time, the regime of Bashar al-Asad, who had kept the country subjugated for a quarter of a century, collapsed. The Damascus dictator has meanwhile fled: According to Syrian officers, Asad left the capital on a plane early Sunday morning, as various news agencies report. It is not known where Syria’s long-term ruler has gone.

The end of an era

What began at the end of November as a limited offensive from rebel-controlled northwest Syria quickly developed into a popular uprising against Asad. In a few days, the HTS militiamen first took the second largest city of Aleppo, shortly afterwards Hama fell and finally they marched on Damascus.

Not only the HTS, but also Kurdish militias and local rebels from the south captured areas from the Syrian army, whose soldiers in most cases fled or surrendered without a fight.

The advance marks a new era: with breathtaking speed, the rebels have overthrown the rule of the Asad family, which has oppressed the country for 54 years. Bashar’s father Hafiz al-Asad seized power in Damascus in 1970 and also ruled Syria with an iron fist for decades.

Now the rebels have achieved what they failed to do in 2011. When the Arab Spring reached Syria, Asad responded to calls for reform with incredible violence and in the years that followed also used poison gas against his own population. The result was a bloody civil war, as a result of which hundreds of thousands of people were displaced and, among others, the “Islamic State” took power in some parts of the country.

With foreign help, however, Asad was able to recover: Russia, Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah gave Asad support in the war against his own people. But the autocrat’s protective powers no longer have the strength to support Asad’s reign of terror. Russia stayed out of the fighting except for a few air strikes in northwest Syria. Iran recently sent some military advisors, but according to the New York Times they were withdrawn on Friday. The loss of Syria is a serious blow for both powers.

Turning point for the Middle East

In recent months, Tehran in particular has had to watch as the militia system it put together with great effort almost completely collapsed. After Israel shot down Hezbollah in Lebanon in the fall, the Iranians have now lost their oldest ally in the Arab world with the Asad regime. There is hardly anything left of the former pro-Iranian axis that stretched from Tehran to Beirut. This represents a turning point for the Middle East.

Both Iran and Russia tried to find a diplomatic solution to the Syria crisis until shortly before the end. On Saturday, the foreign ministers of both countries met with their counterpart from Turkey in the Qatari capital Doha. Not much new emerged, at least on the surface – apart from a few vague declarations on Syria’s sovereignty.

Some observers therefore suspect that Tehran and Moscow may have already dropped their Syrian client. Hours before Asad’s escape, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia was demanding an end to the fighting in Syria and a dialogue between the government and the opposition. The Iranians also seemed to have resigned themselves to the situation. “In the end, the involvement in Syria was a huge waste of resources,” a former Iranian diplomat told the NZZ on the sidelines of a political conference in Doha.

In the rest of the Arab world, Asad’s rapid fall has caused particular concern. They just don’t want any more chaos, say representatives from the Gulf in private conversations. This is also why the Gulf states have recently drawn closer to the once hated Asad and tried to make him compliant with promises and help.

Now they are skeptical about the future. Especially in Abu Dhabi or Riyadh, the pro-Turkish Islamists of the HTS are anything but trustworthy partners. However, neither Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates nor any other power in the region apparently saw Asad’s rapid fall coming. Like everyone else, they were overwhelmed by the winds of history.

How will the Islamists of HTS govern?

Meanwhile, in Syria there is ecstasy mixed with uncertainty. Anas al-Rawi is an early opposition figure who took to the streets against Asad in 2011. The 36-year-old said in a video call late Saturday evening that he couldn’t find any words to express his joy at the fall of the regime. The man with the long black beard keeps smiling as he puffs on his shisha. “But I don’t have complete trust in the Islamists of the HTS.”

The HTS rebels had given themselves a more moderate appearance in recent years. Its leader, Mohammed al-Julani, has trimmed his beard and now signs his decrees with his civilian name, Ahmed al-Sharaa. On Sunday morning he banned his fighters from taking over state institutions in Damascus by force. These should be handed over by the previous Prime Minister in an orderly process. Shots of joy into the air are apparently also forbidden.

The opposition activist Anas al-Rawi is currently in the rebel heartland in the northwest, but he went to the cities immediately after the liberation of Aleppo and Hama. His worries have largely dissipated because he saw in both places that HTS had initially kept its promises.

The Islamist militia protected Christians and other minorities in the conquered cities. “And I say that as someone who demonstrated against the Nusra Front in 2012,” emphasizes the man who now heads a civil society center in the northwest of the country. The HTS militia, which was formerly allied with Qaeda, emerged from the Islamist Nusra Front.

Zero hour in Syria

In Syria, the zero hour struck on Sunday morning: it is completely unclear who will succeed Asad and whether the country will not once again sink into bloody battles that are fought along sectarian lines. It is clear, for example, that the small minority of Alawites from which Asad comes will not be happy about an end to their patron’s rule.

But even in the Alawite heartland, for example in the port city of Latakia, occasional cheers broke out in the streets on Sunday. The fact that Damascus fell without bloodshed is also a glimmer of hope: a long battle for the capital could have reignited the civil war. “I hope for a new constitution and free elections,” says Anas al-Rawi. However, that still feels very far away and the enthusiasm overshadows everything. “I never thought I would live to see zero hour.”