Will the Barnier government survive the coming week? The National Assembly decides on Monday on the very sensitive Social Security budget, with the possibility of recourse to 49.3 and already the prospect of a motion of censure from the left and the National Rally.
This text, the PLFSS (bill on the financing of social security), resulting from a compromise between a committee of senators and deputies, will be examined from 3:00 p.m.
As it stands, it should not be voted on by either the left or the far right, in a divided Assembly.
After having obtained that the government abandons the increase in taxes on electricity and reduces state medical aid (AME) for undocumented immigrants, the RN demands new concessions, in particular on the revaluation of retirement pensions or a a look back at the reduction in reimbursement for certain medications.
But during the weekend, the Minister of Public Accounts Laurent Saint-Martin supported the text as validated by the joint committee which brought together around fifteen senators and deputies.
Minister of Budget and Public Accounts Laurent Saint-Martin during the examination of the social security financing bill (PLFSS) 2025 in the Senate, in Paris, November 26, 2024 / Alain JOCARD / AFP
” To come back “ above, “would be to sit on Parliament, democracy and deliberation whose compromise we respect”he explained.
A casus belli for the RN.
“The government has expressed its wish not to modify the PLFSS (bill on the financing of social security), this is extremely clear and we have taken note of this”Marine Le Pen told AFP on Sunday, without explicitly commenting on the censorship with which her party has been threatening Michel Barnier for several weeks.
The head of the National Rally also denounced a “extremely closed and sectarian behavior” of the government.
In the process, Matignon announced that Michel Barnier remained “open to dialogue as it has been from the beginning”. The executive has the possibility of modifying the text which will be submitted to the vote until the last moment.
The RN deputies must hold a meeting at 2:00 p.m., just before the start of the debates, said Gironde elected official Edwige Diaz on BFMTV.
A first since 1962?
Without a majority, the Prime Minister could therefore activate article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the approval of a text without a vote. He would then be exposed to a motion of censure which could be examined as early as Wednesday.
If the left and the National Rally, the first group in the Assembly, unite their voices, the government will fall. This would be a first since the fall of Georges Pompidou's government in 1962. Barnier's government would then become the shortest in the history of the Fifth Republic.
Presentation of the conditions to be met to have a motion of censure adopted and therefore provoke the resignation of a government in France / Nalini LEPETIT-CHELLA, Sabrina BLANCHARD, Valentina BRESCHI / AFP
France would then sink further into the political crisis created by the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron in June.
Michel Barnier indicated last week that he would use “probably, surely” the 49.3.
If, however, the Prime Minister decided not to resort to it and the text was simply rejected by the oppositions, he would leave for a new parliamentary shuttle.
The RN denounces in advance a very complex constitutional scenario which would see the parliamentary debate bog down and the government legislate by ordinance, as it has the possibility of doing 50 days after the tabling of the text.
There would then remain the risk that deputies would table a motion of censure on their own initiative, using article 49.2 of the Constitution.
It was in this way, and not after a 49.3, that the government of Georges Pompidou fell in 1962.
As it stands, the use of 49.3 is “probable but all avenues remain possible”a deputy close to Michel Barnier told AFP on Sunday evening.
Long month for Barnier
The month of December promises to be full of dangers for the Prime Minister from the right-wing Les Républicains (LR) party who replaced Gabriel Attal in September
Because other budgetary texts are currently being examined by Parliament: the bill for the end of management of the current year, less emblematic, and the state budget. Above the examination of each of them hovers a risk of censorship.
After being rejected by deputies, the state budget, a flagship text, is currently being examined by the Senate.
Let's leave ” recipes “ was largely passed by the upper house of Parliament on Sunday. The part ” expenses “ of the bill will be examined from Monday.
