Without a majority, the Prime Minister could therefore activate article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the approval of a text without a vote. He would then be exposed to a motion of censure which could be examined as early as Wednesday.
If the left and the National Rally, the first group in the Assembly, unite their voices, the government will fall. This would be a first since the fall of Georges Pompidou's government in 1962. Barnier's government would then become the shortest in the history of the Fifth Republic. France would then sink further into the political crisis created by the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron in June.
Michel Barnier indicated last week that he would use “probably, surely” 49.3. If, however, the Prime Minister decided not to resort to it and the text was simply rejected by the oppositions, he would leave for a new parliamentary shuttle.
The RN denounces in advance a very complex constitutional scenario which would see the parliamentary debate bog down and the government legislate by ordinance, as it has the possibility of doing 50 days after the tabling of the text. There would then remain the risk that deputies would table a motion of censure on their own initiative, using article 49.2 of the Constitution.
It is in this way, and not after a 49.3, that the government of Georges Pompidou fell in 1962. As it stands, the use of 49.3 is “probable but all avenues remain possible”a deputy close to Michel Barnier told AFP on Sunday evening.
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